The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems to be making a habit of throwing up surprises. In the past two bi-monthly reviews, the MPC chose to raise policy rates while keeping its stand “neutral”. Since the last policy review, the Indian basket of crude oil prices has gone up by around $13 a barrel. Given the steady depreciation of the rupee, it was widely expected that the MPC might be left with little option but to raise rates — the suspense was only over the extent of the hike. This was even more true

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