Continued vigilance

Govt can't relax even if active Covid cases are decreasing

Some experts believe that India has just passed the peak — or, at any rate, the first peak — of coronavirus infections. In the last fortnight, the seven-day moving average of active cases nationwide has for the first time since March shown a distinct downward dip. At no point has the number of new reported cases crossed 92,000; in the time since the fortnight, September 5-18, there has been a clear decrease in the number of active cases — by about 10 per cent. If it is the case that one peak has been reached, then many epidemiological models would suggest a further descent in the coming fortnight by another 10-20 per cent. This is certainly better news than what has been available regarding the pandemic in India in quite some time. Yet it may be too early to say that India has “flattened the curve.”  Given that India’s progress on controlling the virus’ spread has been slower than in many other countries, there is a great deal worth observing from the worldwide experience to inform the government’s response. 

The past months have also seen the “gold standard” RT-PCR tests for infection being replaced by rapid antigen tests, which are far more buggy and prone to error. The prime minister himself has recently called for more RT-PCR tests. Without more accurate testing, the exact spread of the disease will remain uncertain given the number of asymptomatic infections. However, it is also unlikely that the peak in the data is completely a product of this shift, since the replacement of RT-PCRs began a little earlier. But there are other aspects of the Indian experience, including testing, that need to be examined more thoroughly. This is a particularly large country, with a wide variance in data collection accuracy and health care facilities. What is likely is that the more globalised areas of the country, where the relevant infrastructure is relatively advanced, were the first to face a wave of infections and thus the first to reach an initial peak. The question is whether interior areas and states are also peaking at the same time. Given their different timeframes of infection and infrastructure levels, the chances are they are not. Thus a state-wise analysis of infection curves continues to be vital to carry out. In the United States, globalised north-eastern states peaked in May or June, but that did not mean that the virus did not rapidly spread through the rural south later in the summer. 

Nor can government, at either Union or state levels, relax in any way. Europe’s current experience, where a second wave of infections has hit countries like Spain and France, is clear on that. Indeed, Kerala — which had some early success — has now been hit by another wave after the partial reopening of the economy. It is the nature of this virus that initial peaks can be either illusions, or followed some months later by another rapid spread of infections and peaks. Continued vigilance and rapid action, particularly at the state level, is the only policy that works — regardless of what the nationwide total numbers may be saying from week to week.