European summer

The PM's trip reflects shifting geopolitical priorities

Behind the upbeat foreign ministry readouts and the serial photo-ops, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-day, three-nation trip to Germany, Denmark, and France reflects significant shifts in geopolitical priorities and strategic convergence for India and Europe. These changes have been accelerated by the Russia-Ukraine crisis but also fit into India’s longer-term strategic calculations. Much has been made of the US and Europe’s discomfort with India’s neutral stance towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The outcome of Mr Modi’s visit suggests that the European Union has broadly come to recognise the strategic legacies embedded in the Indo-Russian relationship — defence ties in particular — that dictate India’s subdued responses. The fact that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz formally invited India to the G7 summit next month during Mr Modi’s Berlin pit-stop pointed to this emerging understanding. Embedded in India’s closer engagement with Germany, which included bilateral agreements focused on sustainable development, including euro 10 billion in aid to boost the use of clean energy, is an interconnected reorientation between European and Indian geopolitical outlooks.
 

Germany’s decision to discard its hitherto low-key role vis-à-vis European defence and security and take a leading role in supplying defence equipment to Ukraine signals a departure from its historical policy of Ostpolitik or eastern political and economic engagement with Russia. These developments have, in turn, caused Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to temper its strong relationship with China, the biggest market for its automobile and engineering goods, given Beijing’s alignment with Russia. The realisation that such deep economic interdependence can be weaponised, as Russia has demonstrated, is prompting a shift in the Sino-EU engagement. This readjustment of strategic priorities by the EU as a united political entity has meant that earlier divergences in the Atlantic relationship with the US over China policy have narrowed. In this context, the renewed US-EU focus on the Indo-Pacific plays to India’s broader economic priorities such as the transition to renewable energy, the focus of Mr Modi’s talks with Scandinavia as well, and its political tensions vis-à-vis China.

Overall, the elevation of Europe in India’s strategic and diplomatic pecking order is an important supplement to the Indo-US partnership, and it comes at a time when New Delhi’s relationship with Russia has been declining. This process has been partly driven by geopolitical realities, with Russia’s close relationship with China creating differences with India over Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Indian defence establishment has also been steadily reducing its overwhelming dependence on Russian technology and weapons, a process that the Russia-Ukraine crisis will accelerate, given that both countries supply India with hardware. Several discussions during Mr Modi’s Europe visit concerned the sale of European defence equipment to India and possible joint ventures. Suggestions that India may buy additional Rafale fighters from France for the Navy have been doing the rounds.

One consequential result of this visit and the visible reset in the Indo-European relationship is the anticipated revival in a comprehensive EU-India trade deal. Hanging fire for years, this trade agreement had foundered on myriad technocratic objections over product-specific duties, reciprocal rights, and so on. The high-profile prime ministerial visit to Europe, preceded by a visit from European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, suggests that the agreement will now get a much-needed political impetus, marking a giant step forward for India.