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According to political analyst Jayashankar, the emerging SNDP- BJP tie-up could trigger a "Hindutva storm" in the state. "Natesan's relations with the BJP have complicated the already complex nature of Kerala politics," he said. "He is not the Pope of the Ezhavas and members of the community won't vote en bloc according to his direction," Jayashankar said. "Yet his stance is politically significant."
There is a growing perception that the Oommen Chandy-led government in the state supported by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Church-supported Kerala Congress has been pursuing a policy inclined towards the minorities.
Usually, the LDF is the beneficiary of the Hindu resentment against the UDF. "Certain communal initiatives taken by the IUML and the Kerala Congress gave the impression that the government was working only for the minorities," said a UDF leader, who did not want to be named. "There is a feeling within the Congress that it is being arm-twisted by the IUML. Even top positions in the party are held by leaders from minority communities. Yet, the UDF can sit pretty for now as Hindu consolidation would trigger reverse consolidation of minorities. But in the long run, it might affect the Congress too."
Congress leaders such as Rajmohan Unnithan gave voice to these fears. "We are not very happy about the decline of the CPI(M). The BJP's growth is a cause of concern," he said.
After the Aruvikkara bypoll, CPI state chief Kanam Rajendran raised concern over "minority appeasement". But steps taken by the CPI(M) to emphasise its secular credentials not only alienated the Ezhavas, but also caused doubts and confusion among even hard-core Communists.
The CPI(M)'s conduct of the Shri Krishna Jayanti on Janmasthami is a case in point. Responding to criticism that the party was pursuing a 'soft Hindutva line', it said that it was only extending Onam festivities "to counter the communal Shri Krishna Jayanti celebrations of the RSS's Balagokulam".
The CPI(M)'s Shri Krishna Jayanti procession, which had a tableau of social reformer Sree Narayana Guru on a cross, enraged the Ezhava community. The party was forced to apologise for using the tableu following public outrage. But by then the damage had been done.
Similarly, the CPI(M)-affiliated organisation, DYFI, had organised beef festivals across the state in response to a ban on sale of beef in Maharashtra, but it distanced itself when party workers protested against IUML minister Abdul Rabb by lighting a traditional lamp. Rabb had refused to light the traditional lamp, saying it was "anti-Islamic".
"There has been an effort by the Sangh Parivar to appropriate Sree Narayana Guru," CPI(M) Lok Sabha member M B Rajesh said. "Natesan is trying to take the SNDP to the Sangh Parivar camp. If that happens there would be a revolt within the organisation, as RSS's ideals are in conflict with that of the Guru's."
"The CPI(M) has always denigrated Sree Narayana Guru," counters T G Mohan Das, a Sangh Parivar leader. "Its new-found love for the guru is because the Ezhava community is moving away from the party."
The parting shot comes from Natesan himself. "The BJP will definitely open its account in the coming Assembly elections," he told a Malayalam TV channel.
