Till the beginning of this century, US interests dictated a tilt to Pakistan, initially in the context of the Cold War, then as part of its China and Middle East policies as well. But ensuring an internal balance in Asia required maintaining India sufficiently to hold its own, especially at a time when US ties with China were strained. An unstable India was clearly a far worse prospect than a non-aligned one. The challenge, therefore, was to get the policy just right; to do enough that India could stand up for itself but not so much as to upset Pakistan. Both geopolitics and values helped to give this a Sino-Indian context. Economic assistance largely did the trick. American military assistance, in contrast, was very circumspect in responding to its requests for weapons, complaints about non-alignment notwithstanding. US policy could be summed up as maintaining India at a certain level, with a willingness to respond to a 911 call. It was not averse to pressing India when larger strategy so demanded. India, on its part, sought to leverage US capabilities while keeping a distance.
This contradiction between an alliance approach and fierce independence was blunted by the end of the Cold War. It was not that either party reconsidered their beliefs ; there was just less need to assert them against the other. The rise of China also had its impact on any Asian security calculus. The dissolution of the Soviet Union undermines a key aspect of its security calculations but paradoxically, gives it more space to engage the US. The Asian balance becomes more complicated even though India-China ties themselves improve. A more responsive approach gathers pace at both ends, but not in politics alone. Economics and even sociology are at work. The economic reform in India, initiated two decades ago and pursued by successive governments has started kicking in. The overall economy transformed from what the US supported for reasons of strategy and empathy to one that now holds intrinsic value. The long view consequently becomes less minimal. If investment conditions and trade access feature strongly in our current conversations, it is proof of that change. One reflection of higher growth rates is the substantial expansion of the middle class. That not only drew more American companies to India but created the basis for a serious services industry. Today, the services trade is almost as large as the one in merchandise. Many major American companies have operations in India, varying in their complexity and significance. That they relate to it as a society is surely a part of the explanation for their rapidly growing presence. Let me comment briefly on attempts to undermine our services trade using immigration reforms. I refer to the current Senate Bill. This will only lessen the competitiveness of US companies but also negatively affect the strongest advocates in India of our relationship.
The same dynamics have also seen the growth of the Indian American community. At the time of our independence, it was less than 3,000. When I first came to the US three decades ago, it was 300,000. Today, thanks to the dot-com revolution, it is more than three million. The Kargil conflict of 1999 provided an opportunity for the Clinton Administration to begin a course correction. The nuclear deal under President George Bush, requiring the passage of laws to remove impediments not just for nuclear co-operation but indirectly for defence, space and high technology, saw policy finally catching up with reality. The Obama Administration has since consolidated those shifts. Mutual perceptions adjusted too, of India as a responsible power and of the US as one resident in Asia.
India and the US are today positioned to embark on a more closely collaborative path. The world the two nations seek does look similar in the big picture: with greater prosperity, more freedom, market economics, rule-based regimes, and pluralistic societies. At a more practical level, this is being translated into ground reality. Since 2005, the year Ambassador Burns and others worked together to put our relations on a different level, trade has tripled and investments have shot up. The two countries are each other's premier partner when it comes to military exercises. India has also emerged as the largest customer for American defense sales abroad. Short-term issues can crop up and even dominate in the absence of direction. After all, we have seen differences being publicly paraded after some years. The overhang of the old view too can persist, missing the point that our interests are convergent and not congruent. Arguments of over-investment will be made, particularly from those who never had much appetite for these ties. But the fact is that public opinion in each country about the other has shifted clearly in a favourable direction. Our politicians and business leaders get it, as do scientists, educationists and the military. The Pew polls on societal attitudes affirm this change strongly.
I return to this relationship after six years in Singapore and China. But what I have learnt in the last four months about its growth is an eye opener even for someone with my history. Many of these initiatives can change India, our relationship, perhaps even the larger world. Our biotechnologists are together producing the most economical vaccine in the world. Joint projects that will take solar refrigeration to Indian villages and revolutionise photovoltaic plate efficiency are underway. So too are public health programmes ranging from cancer treatment to cataract detection. Two days ago, the NASA administrator spoke warmly to me of our growing collaboration on space exploration, including the Mars mission. In Houston, they briefed me about US gas that would start flowing to India in 2017 in what could be a game-changing development. News of fresh collaborations and investments come in regularly. The Indian American community continues with its success stories. And as for the academic world, what can I possibly say in Harvard? All this is made possible by a chemistry in our ties that I only see getting stronger. There is truly a world out there for our relationship to explore.
Edited excerpts from a speech by S Jaishankar, Indian Ambassador to the US on "India and the United States : The Long View" at the Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA on April 17, 2014
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