Barack Hussein Obama has stepped on to the pages of history, as America’s first African-American president—marking a symbolic transition after more than two centuries of slavery, segregation and discrimination. Mr Obama is also an unusually qualified president for very troubled times. He is intelligent, well-educated, and has a cool temperament as well as his heart in the right place. He cuts a good figure, has the relaxed manner of someone who is comfortable with himself, and leads a closely knit family. In addition, he has the gift of eloquence (though his inaugural address would have disappointed many). Put together, they explain why he comes to office with an 82 per cent approval rating.
Far too much hope rides on his shoulders when he is faced with a superhuman task—as the sharp fall in stock market prices on his inauguration day would have reminded the new president. The US financial crisis seems to be getting worse, not better; hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent, or mis-spent since there is no apparent effect. With a fiscal deficit that is now bigger than even India’s when compared with GDP, and projected to remain at that level for some years, the country is running huge risks when it is already more indebted than at any point in its history. And, despite everything, the unemployment numbers will almost certainly climb from one month to the next. Mr Obama was right to spend much of his speech outlining the tasks and difficulties ahead.
The early paybacks are likely to come in other areas. The Guantanamo Bay prison will be ordered closed, a time frame will be set for leaving Iraq, and the new president has already turned his face away from much of the Bush legacy—illegal wire tapping, the use of torture, and executive over-reach in general. But major international challenges remain: Afghanistan-Pakistan, nuclear proliferation and Palestine being the most urgent as well as the most serious. To the extent that Mr Obama is likely to stress cooperation rather than unilateralism, and bipartisanship at home, he will have got his country to start a new page and encouraged world leaders to engage with the US in a new way.
It is the domestic challenges that should be expected to define Mr Obama’s presidency. Other than the economic recession, there is health care reform and energy independence, and reversing a sense of long-term American decline. Each of these is a big enough task to keep a president busy for one if not two terms; for Mr Obama, because of the severity of the economic crisis, the rest are almost add-on responsibilities. With all the goodwill in the world, a competent team and even some luck, the new president will find that he has taken on a handful. Although Mr Obama is no softie, and has shown strength of purpose as well as staying power, he will be tested as never before.
As for Indo-US relations, they are unlikely to be a great priority in Washington when so much else presses for the new president’s attention. India will be hoping that Mr Obama will fight protectionism, not close the doors to offshoring, and perhaps even manage a satisfactory conclusion of the stalled Doha Round of trade negotiations. But most of all, New Delhi will be hoping that when it finds its own options limited in dealing with rogue elements in Pakistan, it has in the US an ally and not a misguided superpower that makes the wrong moves.
