A lot has been said about whether capital gains taxes on equities will be raised in the upcoming Budget. The common response from the fund management community has been “unlikely, because Mr Modi doesn’t want to create one more big disruption before election and the government wouldn’t get much out of it anyway”. Without going into the politics or rationality of the potential tax increase, let us focus on the latter part of it. How much can the government get out of it? Our analysis suggests that this number could be as big as Rs 300-500 bn (US$4.5-8 bn). This
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