Solving the Brexit puzzle

A second referendum is the only way out

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday managed to survive a vote of confidence among the parliamentary contingent of her own Conservative Party. The opposition was unexpectedly stiff — Ms May won only by 200 votes to 117 — but according to rules of the Conservative Party, there cannot be another leadership challenge against Ms May for at least another year. The immediate cause of this attempt to unseat Ms May was her decision to postpone a parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal with the European Union (EU). The Brexit deal she has negotiated over the past two years is proving to be wildly unpopular among both the Brexiteers and the Remainers alike. That is why she expects to lose a vote on her deal in the House of Commons. The Brexiteers, in particular, are deeply disappointed, arguing that the United Kingdom will be tied to the EU for the foreseeable future in case the “Irish backstop” comes into play. The UK will have to abide by rules set in Brussels in order to be part of a “customs union”, but will have no say in what those rules are the way it does at present as a full member of the Union. Most worryingly for many members of the British parliament, any future changes to this status will have to be approved by both parties. 

The “Irish backstop” intends to prevent the recreation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK. As part of the Good Friday agreement, which put an end to the insurgency in Northern Ireland two decades ago, the border between the two countries was opened, and the Republic gave up its claim to the northern counties of the island. Ireland, along with the rest of the EU, is insistent that this agreement is not compromised by Brexit. However, this opens up an irreconcilable problem for Ms May. An open border in Ireland means either that Britain continues to abide by EU trading rules, or that another customs border be set up between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. But the latter is unacceptable to many in Westminster — and particularly to the hardliners from Northern Ireland in the Democratic Unionist Party, which Ms May depends on for her parliamentary majority. Ms May is now once again doing the rounds of Europe, asking them to give way on the backstop — but there is no reason to assume that the EU will give in now when it has not for months. 

There is little doubt now that, given this intractable problem, the British people deserve another chance to express their preferences. Logically, another referendum should be held and as swiftly as possible — Brexit is due to happen in just a few months. The problem here is that, while there may be a parliamentary majority for another referendum, the opposition Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn is cynically trying to use this crisis to force a general election rather than another referendum. Without Ms May’s leadership and Mr Corbyn’s enthusiasm for another referendum, Britain could crash out of the EU without a deal and that would have disastrous consequences for all concerned.