 "GDP Growth")
India’s government and central bank have, perhaps sensibly given their capability and competency limitations, stopped presenting a quantified medium-term macroeconomic policy framework. This has allowed a lot of spurious analytics to be touted by the policy ecosystem. When it fits their purpose, these are incorporated by the authorities, whose analytical cupboard is bare.
A prime example in the recent Budget was the touting of fiscal multipliers from public investment as expansionary fiscal policy. This is analytically wrong. A fiscal multiplier is simply the ratio of the change in national income to the change in total government expenditure, normalised as the
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