You are here: Home » Opinion » Columns
Risk to online freedom
Citizen scorecards for better accountability
Business Standard

The VW recovery and beyond

Covid scars may outweigh growth gains from reforms in the medium term

Topics
BS Opinion | Economic recovery | GDP

Shankar Acharya 



Shankar Acharya

Ever since the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimates of 2021-22 Q1 came out at end August, there has been a lively debate on whether it reflects a V-shaped recovery or not. Well, a glance at the figure should answer the question. It plots the level of real (inflation-adjusted) quarterly as per the NSO since the first quarter of 2019-20 and includes my guestimate for 2021-22 Q2. It clearly supports three statements. First, the recovery from the deep plunge of April-June 2020 (the brutal downswing of the “V”) was followed by a smart recovery in the next three quarters to restore quarterly to its prior levels. This does merit the sobriquet of a “V”, even if the upswing was somewhat more leisurely. Second, with the deadly second wave of the pandemic in March-June 2021, there was another plunge in GDP, which, though not as deep as in the previous year, negated much of the recovery. Third, based on high frequency data, there is likely to be another robust recovery from Q2 of 2021-22 (depicted by the dotted line). Now the picture resembles a somewhat straggly “W” more than a “V”. And that may be the final profile unless a strong third Covid wave leads to another drop in .

TO READ THE FULL STORY, SUBSCRIBE NOW NOW AT JUST RS 249 A MONTH.

SUBSCRIBE TO INSIGHTS

What you get on Business Standard Premium?

  • icon Unlock 30+ premium stories daily hand-picked by our editors, across devices on browser and app.
  • icon Full access to our intuitive epaper - clip, save, share articles from any device; newspaper archives from 2006.
  • icon Curated newsletters on markets, personal finance, policy & politics, start-ups, technology, and more.
  • icon Pick your 5 favourite companies, get a daily email with all news updates on them.
  • icon 26 years of website archives.
  • icon Preferential invites to Business Standard events.

OR


Subscribe to Business Standard Premium

Exclusive Stories, Curated Newsletters, 26 years of Archives, E-paper, and more!

Insightful news, sharp views, newsletters, e-paper, and more! Unlock incisive commentary only on Business Standard.

Download the Business Standard App for latest Business News and Market News .

First Published: Wed, September 22 2021. 22:58 IST

RECOMMENDED FOR YOU

.