Wednesday’s shock defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in three Lok Sabha seats can have much wider ramifications for national politics, especially in the run-up to the next general elections. What made it a big setback for the BJP was the politically sensitive nature of the seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the two seats on offer — Gorakhpur and Phulpur — were vacated by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, respectively. The loss was particularly embarrassing in Gorakhpur where the BJP has been winning since 1989. Besides, it is the pocket borough of Mr Adityanath, who is also the presiding seer of the powerful Gorakhnath Peeth. What is significant is that in 2014 the BJP secured far more votes than those polled together by the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress in both the seats. In Bihar, the Araria Lok Sabha constituency, which has been swinging between the BJP and the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), was retained by the latter, which can claim a moral victory over its erstwhile coalition partner Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who changed horses midstream to ally with the BJP.
Another key takeaway from Wednesday’s results is the impact of Opposition unity. In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the SP, which entered into a temporary and informal tie-up with arch-rival BSP, easily surpassed the BJP’s numbers in Mr Adityanath’s stronghold. The result is a reminder of the BJP’s humiliating loss to the mahagathbandhan between bitter state-level rivals — the RJD and the Janata Dal (United) — in the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. The results have yet again underscored the BJP’s vulnerability to a united Opposition as the 2019 Lok Sabha elections approach. In fact, the latest by-election reversals follow similar losses in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. BJP President Amit Shah, who is also its chief election strategist, cannot ignore the threat of growing voter disenchantment with the party, especially when such voices are provided a common platform. The BJP’s stupendous rise in the so-called cow belt was reflective of voters’ tiredness with established caste-based parties. However, that charm seems to be fading, and it can potentially spell trouble for the party in 2019.
Equally important is the message that these results deliver to the Opposition, which at present is as amorphous as it has ever been in the recent past. It is by now clear, even to the Opposition parties, that none of them can take on the BJP single-handedly and that there is no leader to match the talismanic Narendra Modi. However, if the parties set aside their squabbling they still control enough vote share to turn the tables on the Modi-Shah combine. What, however, is uncertain is whether the Opposition comprising political parties that are bitter rivals in several states can really stay together. The experiment failed in Bihar in no time; and it is difficult to see how the SP and the BSP can continue with their uneasy alliance. In that context, the reluctance of the Left parties to ally with the Congress is understandable as they fight for political space in Kerala, the only state that the Left rules. Sonia Gandhi’s dinner with leaders of 20-odd non-BJP parties on Tuesday must have had a lot to discuss.
