Everyone is agreed on the following three things.
First, that the Congress is unlikely to get very many seats and that it may even come down to double digits. But it could still be the single largest non-NDA party.
Second, that the BJP-NDA, in spite of the strong anti-Congress feeling in the country, will not be able to cross the 272 mark. Much depends on whether the BJP can get 250 seats on its own.
Third, therefore, there is a high probability that the smaller parties with 30-35 seats each in the Lok Sabha will decide the shape and nature of the next government.
The fourth protocol
But there is a fourth factor that has not been discussed. This is the discretionary power that is vested in the President to invite Mr A or Mrs B to form the government.
This would depend on how the cards fall. So consider the following outcome.
The NDA, with four or five constituents, gets 250-275 seats. The non-NDA parties get 275-290 seats.
However, the Congress gets 100-110 seats while the BJP gets double that, around 200-220 seats.
Who should President call now to form the government? The UPA or the NDA?
The answer depends on which coalition he regards as more stable. His emphasis on stability in his Republic Day speech has to be read in this context. He was sending a signal.
If he thinks that despite being the single largest party the BJP cannot provide a stable government, he may not invite it to try its luck on post election deal-making with the drifters with less than 10 seats.
If, on the other hand, he thinks the UPA stands a better chance of forming a stable government, he may well ask the Congress to lead the government.
Rahul becomes PM
Thus, even if the Congress drops half the seats it currently has and is reduced to a rump, Rahul Gandhi could well become the next Prime Minister as the leader of the largest coalition without the Congress being the single largest party. There would be nothing wrong if the President exercised his discretion in this manner.
Perhaps this is what Mr Gandhi meant when he told Mr Arnab Goswami “We will win.”
He said this not once but three times, with the quiet confidence of a man who knows what he is talking about – which was not the case in respect of his other utterances.
