Page 2 - Aditi Nayar

FY22 GDP estimates: Economic growth weighed down by mfg, construction

While an adverse base was expected to flatten growth in the quarter from 8.5% in Q2FY22, NSO's initial estimates are sorely below our expectation of a 6.2% YoY expansion in that quarter

Festive season trends, Q2 GDP growth will set the stage for policy stance

We remain cautious that reviving demand could embolden pricing power, allowing a faster transmission of the supply-side pressures to core inflation

Why GDP expansion by 20.1% in Q1 of FY22 is misleading

Distorted base of last year's stringent nationwide lockdown obscured devastation of second wave of Covid-19 that came with staggered state-wise curbs in Q1 of current fiscal

Whatever it takes: But for how long?

The Governor clearly stated that the RBI remains in 'whatever it takes' mode, referring to the desire to support the fledgling recovery

RBI policy: No explicit time frame for continuation of accommodative stance

The monetary policy stance is expected to remain accommodative for most of 2021, until a dramatic improvement in vaccine coverage quells uncertainty regarding the growth outlook

India's Q4 GDP number: Pick-up in volumes underpinned improved growth

Overall, GDP and GVA contracted by 7.3 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively, in FY21, in line with our forecasts (-7.3 per cent and -6.3 per cent, respectively)

MPC to maintain accommodative stance at least in the next two reviews

The disconcertingly sharp new wave of Covid-19 cases has reignited uncertainty regarding the economic outlook in the immediate term

Q3 GDP growth number: Covid-driven recession over, double dip ahead

GDP is implicitly projected by NSO to slip back into contraction of 1.1% in Q4FY21. This appears to be an outcome of the back-ended release in the Govt's subsidies that is on the anvil in Q4

Capital outlay should support a higher pace of GDP expansion in FY22

The fiscal deficit of the government of India has increased sharply to 9.5 per cent of GDP in the Revised Estimates for FY21, relative to the budgeted target of 3.5 per cent

Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 to boost sentiment and solidify economic revival

The package offers a variety of measures to boost capital spending and infra investment, incentivise job creation and also provide support to the farm and non-farm portion of the rural economy

Q1 GDP numbers show economic outlook fraught with uncertainty

Indian GDP will de-grow in both Q2 FY2021 and Q3 FY2021 but pace of contraction may narrow, writes Aditi Nayar.

RBI monetary policy: Rates on hold amid uneasiness on inflation

The committee highlighted that inflation risks emanate from supply chain disruptions, high vegetable prices, increased taxes on fuels, and volatility in financial markets

Unsavoury implication of GDP numbers: Slowdown has not bottomed out

The MPC may well undertake a final rate cut in FY2021

GDP growth expected to print sub-6.5% in FY20: ICRA's Aditi Nayar

Government spending was the key driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY20. The outlook for the same appears somewhat mixed

MPC showed continuity: Aditi Nayar

There was continuity in other parameters such as the stance on neutral systemic liquidity

GDP growth in line with expectations

Further monetary easing in 2016 likely to be limited to 25 bps

However, the hasty rise in retail inflation in April to 5.4 per cent confirms that the RBI's decision not to front-load a larger rate cut was indeed appropriate