Josh Felman
 "Josh Felman")
Josh Felman
Josh Felman is the principal at JH Consulting, a macroeconomic consulting firm based in Washington DC. Previously, he had a long career at the International Monetary Fund, where he held a number of senior management positions. He has had an extensive association with Asia and with India in particular. During the mid-2000s, he ran the IMF’s India office, and during 2015-17 he returned to Delhi to provide technical assistance to the Ministry of Finance, where he worked closely with the Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian.
Josh Felman is the principal at JH Consulting, a macroeconomic consulting firm based in Washington DC. Previously, he had a long career at the International Monetary Fund, where he held a number of senior management positions. He has had an extensive association with Asia and with India in particular. During the mid-2000s, he ran the IMF’s India office, and during 2015-17 he returned to Delhi to provide technical assistance to the Ministry of Finance, where he worked closely with the Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Subramanian.
Josh Felman
Reducing GDP discrepancies: India needs radical improvements in estimation
Using GST data could help correct inflated real growth figures
 "Reducing GDP discrepancies: India needs radical improvements in estimation")
US President Donald Trump and trade policy: What should India do?
The country should convert the Trump threat to an India opportunity, re-embracing a more liberal trade regime as a way of reviving manufacturing output and exports
 "US President Donald Trump and trade policy: What should India do?")
How quality control orders are crippling India's trade competitiveness
India's exporters are already under dire threat from the US. That only makes it more important that they should not be attacked from the domestic side. QCOs must be eliminated immediately
 "How quality control orders are crippling India's trade competitiveness")
Why did RBI replace flexible exchange rate with de facto peg against dollar
The RBI must come out with an official explanation, but until it does, we can only guess. But there are a few reasonable hypotheses
 "Why did RBI replace flexible exchange rate with de facto peg against dollar")
Rupee defence strategy: Why RBI should embrace currency flexibility
India now holds about $650 billion in reserves, enough to finance nearly a year of imports. The problem is that global financial markets have even more firepower
 "Rupee defence strategy: Why RBI should embrace currency flexibility")
The new RBI should revert to old rupee policy to address challenges
In our earlier piece in these pages, we highlighted the unwelcome consequences of the exchange rate policy adopted under the outgoing Reserve Bank of India (RBI) regime
 "The new RBI should revert to old rupee policy to address challenges")
Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?
Ever since the liberalisation in 1991, the RBI has pursued a flexible exchange rate policy
 "Explained: Has India's exchange rate regime changed for the worse?")
Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications
Why is consumption soft, employment growth weak, and core inflation low, when the economy is apparently growing strongly?
 "Union Budget 2024-25: Three macro puzzles and policy implications")
GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row
There's no reason for the cess to be retained in its current form. That's because the cess rates themselves are monstrously complicated, varying not only in magnitude but also according to end-use
 "GST revenues: The fate of the compensation cess amid Centre-state row")
GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism
Over the past few years, most commentators have rightly emphasised the tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations, pointing especially to the Centre's repeated recourse to non-sharable cesses
 "GST's revenue performance: Centre's sacrifice for cooperative federalism")
What does the NSS data imply for GDP estimates?
What can we learn from the latest survey? Before we answer this question, we need to recognise the limitations of comparing NSS figures with the ones from the NIA
 "What does the NSS data imply for GDP estimates?")
Understanding GST revenue performance
Contrary to belief, GST underperformed the old tax regime in its initial years but has now begun to exceed expectations, six years after implementation
 "Understanding GST revenue performance")
Is the economy surging or decelerating: Understanding India's growth rate
The nominal figures track the real numbers until the first half of FY23, but then decline by a whopping 14 percentage points over the past three quarters
 "Is the economy surging or decelerating: Understanding India's growth rate")
India should quit the Brics
Arvind Subramanian is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Josh Felman is a principal at JH Consulting
 "India should quit the Brics")
India's welfare balm
While many analysts have estimated India's potential annual GDP growth at 7-8 per cent, the most recent figures indicate a subdued rate of 4.4 per cent
 "India's welfare balm")
How is the Indian economy really doing?
All the heady optimism has overlooked the vulnerable state of the macro-economy. Caution, not complacency, is the more appropriate sentiment for now
 "How is the Indian economy really doing?")
Globalisation shocks that could help India
The long-term consequences of the shocks could be very serious for China
GST: Cooler heads for constructive ends
To be sure, the cooperative spirit has gone missing since about 2018, reflecting the heavy-handedness of the Centre, not just on the GST but across a range of issues
 "GST: Cooler heads for constructive ends")
The West has got its Russia sanctions wrong
The ramifications of this decision may not be visible today, but the damage will become apparent over time
 "The West has got its Russia sanctions wrong")
India's size illusion
India has struggled to generate adequate military resources
 "India's size illusion")
