Over the last few years I have discovered that the best way to know whether the economy is headed in the wrong direction is not by looking at a clutch of economic indicators, but whether on my twice-a-week shopping expeditions I find an unseasonable rise in the prices of fresh vegetables. The word "fresh" is important, as - unlike perishables - onions and potatoes can be stored and their prices manipulated by traders, big and small.Kolkata and its environs, from where the city gets its fresh vegetables, have had normal rainfall this year, unlike many other parts of the country. So vegetable crops - which are of short duration - should at the moment be normal, and their prices similarly so. The only reason why such prices should instead be unseasonably high is if inflationary expectations among vegetable growers and traders cause it to be so. If so, then there shall not just be food inflation but general inflation, too - and this will augur ill for the overall economy.This brings us to

Subir Roy: What about fiscal consolidation?

Business Standard

My host looked a little puzzled, wondering if I was being facetious or had started to get dotty a bit early in the day. So I repeated as clearly as I could: yes, what I miss most about Bangalore is not the weather but the papayas.Until two years ago, in season they would sell them at Rs 20 a kg. But so much more important was the taste. The ripe papaya, without being excessively sweet as some fruits can be, held its own in flavour, and had the lightest defining aroma - making you feel that if there were a hierarchy among fruit that were all good for you, then  the papaya would surely be near the top.The best was, of course, the two or three that our next-door neighbour would present us every year, fresh from his farm. But even the common market variety was absolutely par for the course. So it became mandatory to for us to cart along half a suitcase of the fruit on our annual visit to Kolkata so that relatives could get a taste of Bangalore without being able to go there.The downside is

Subir Roy: A largely fruitless journey

Finding parking space on Kolkata's Park Street with its classy shops and restaurants is nearly impossible. So I cheated - I drove into Park Hotel, handed over the keys for valet parking and entered the lobby, only to exit on to the street reached through the hotel's coffee shop. Then 10 paces brought me to the Oxford Bookstore, where you should be seen if you want to be tagged classy and literate.There was no time to browse, despite loads of books being offered on discount, for I had to quickly go to the mezzanine gallery and occupy one of the 50-odd chairs to witness the launch of Sahara: The Untold Story, which had made history even before hitting the stands.I could vividly remember the author Tamal Bandyopadhyay on the phone a few months ago sounding distraught. He had just had to make a quick trip from Mumbai to Kolkata that had cost him over Rs 40,000. A little more of this and I sensed he would be financially in dire straits. But more than the money it was the harassment. After h

Subir Roy: When friends do us proud

The National Democratic Alliance government has begun to act on its election promise - to create an environment conducive to doing business and review labour laws that are outdated, complicated and contradictory. The Rajasthan government has initiated changes in major labour laws, which will make it easier for employers to retrench workers and raise (that is, ease) the applicability of the contract labour and factories Acts. Other states may follow suit.It is doubtful whether making hiring and firing easier will create more jobs. A flexible labour market already exists through the contract-worker route. However, changes in archaic labour laws, which increase the ease of doing business and reduce the scope for "inspector raj", are necessary and welcome.Two major related issues before the Indian economy are not enough jobs being created and serious deficiencies in the quality of jobs. On creating enough jobs, the scenario is not alarming, but worrisome. There is a declining trend in empl

Subir Roy: Policing the already flexible labour market

The annual general meeting of the venerable old rowing club on the banks of the Dhakuria Lake in Kolkata is usually a dull, scripted affair. Gentlemen in ties and jackets make predictable speeches and go through the ritual of passing motions, adopting accounts and recording votes of thanks. Then, once the polling is over (this year only one post was contested), comes the more robust task of downing the beer and doing justice to the sumptuous lunch.But in this placid predictability, there is occasionally a flutter. A part of the ritual is a little speech by the captain of the boats (head of rowing), reporting on the rowing events of the past year and presenting the "captain's cap" to a veteran rower - which is a way of honouring prominent sportsmen of the past. This year, the captain chose to deliver an impassioned speech. Even as he bemoaned the members' declining interest in rowing, he made everybody sit up by highlighting the official neglect and its inevitable result - that is, a po

Subir Roy: How clubby is the old club?

The report of the P J Nayak committee, at the behest of the banking regulator, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on the governance of Indian banks has made sweeping recommendations for the ownership of public sector banks so as to rid them of the deficiencies that lie at the root of their deteriorating performance.The key recommendation is that the government should transfer its holdings in these banks to a bank investment company (BIC) and bring down these holdings to under 50 per cent so that they fall out of the purview of the government's anti-corruption machinery, the Right to Information Act and restrictions on remuneration. The BIC will act like a passive wealth fund for government holdings with the sole aim of maximising the government's returns.The non-executive chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of the BIC will be nominated by the government and all other directors will be independent. The BIC, in turn, will professionalise and empower bank boards, which will then appo

Subir Roy: Let a few national banks remain

It is time to get seriously worried. There seems to be a move to "develop" the Ganga and as many as four Union ministries have joined hands to do it. The word "development" has not been mentioned, but all that has been said creates a sense of foreboding. Development of the wrong kind can lead to degradation and death of many forms of life.Over the decades, as the waters of the Ganga have become dirtier, there has been anguish all around that this prime Indian symbol of purity (you sprinkle Ganga jal in any corner that you want to cleanse, not just physically but also spiritually) has itself become so obviously unclean. Therefore, action initiated to fulfil Narendra Modi's election promise to clean up the Ganga can only be welcomed. But look what all is being proposed in the name of a clean-up.First, let's appreciate the good ideas. It is great that liquid waste from towns and cities along the river - which has till now been freely dumped into the river, making it one big drain - will n

Subir Roy: Hey bhagwan, please save the Ganga

After the heat and dust of electioneering and euphoria among the winners over the clear electoral verdict, the reality of getting down to business is taking over. The scenario that is emerging is not a dramatic charting of a new course that turns on its head key earlier policies, but something as undramatic as continuity and incremental change.The most telling is what the new finance minister, Arun Jaitley, has to say on the fiscal path ahead. Noting the evolution from "celebration to challenge", he has highlighted the goals of reviving growth, containing inflation and creating jobs. In the short run, this is an impossible trinity. You have to go slow on growth (demand expansion) in order to restore fiscal discipline so that durable foundations for low and stable prices can be laid. "Short-term discipline" is needed for "long-term benefits".So the expectations of business, which has solidly backed the leadership of Narendra Modi, of a clear rise in top and bottomlines will have to wait

Subir Roy: Brace for slow incremental change

If you think backward India remains backward, then you are mistaken. One yardstick is how long it takes for the police to react, get cracking. In developed societies, the police are there pronto whenever something goes wrong; in backward societies, it is the opposite. But not all backward places need remain backward forever and things are changing in the back of beyond in India.Take the case of the missing buffaloes of the powerful Uttar Pradesh minister. No sooner were they gone than the local police fanned out, accompanied by sniffer dogs. And in no time, all seven of those lumbering creatures who had gone out meandering, enabled by some helpful souls who cut their heavy iron moorings, were back home. And just so that nobody would think there was no follow-up action, three policemen on duty at the minister's farm were suspended.The media and politicians, of course, remained as negative-minded as ever, making light of the hefty buffaloes and raising issues like the police's priorities

Subir Roy: A brave new world is here

The Left parties, a key victim of the current system, are the first to raise afresh the demand for a shift to proportional representation; other voices are likely to join them.

Subir Roy: Debating proportional representation

Russi Mody, who died on Friday, could cut across hierarchy to communicate what he wanted

Russi Mody: Polite, with a no-nonsense gruffness

In recent years, a revolution of sorts has taken place at the bottom of the pyramid

Subir Roy: Milk for the working classes

This year, well over 20 people have died in three train accidents caused by derailment. At the turn of the year, more than 30 people died in two accidents in which trains caught fire. There should be a sense of crisis in the Railways and it should have put itself in an emergency mode, declaring: let us stop everything else and come together to make train travel much safer. However, for the Railways, it is business as usual, with serious accidents par for the course.This is not surprising; there seems to be serious malfunctioning at the top. According to two sources, the railway board, which runs the organisation, barely functions. The chairman has difficulty holding board meetings because he cannot ensure the attendance of many members. It seems his writ barely runs, and the scourge of departmentalism is raging.In order to find solutions to a problem, you first need basic information. The Indian Railways' website has statistics about accidents up to 2011-12. You need to trawl the Inter

Subir Roy: Business as usual, including accidents

Down the street where we live in Kolkata is the local Trinamool Congress office - which used to sport CPI(M) colours just a few years ago. In the evening, when many come there to meet local politicos for this or that, young men also gather, parking themselves haphazardly around half a dozen motorbikes. A few paces away on the opposite side is a bike repair shop where a pavement should have been. There is a further collection of motorbikes in front of it, spilling over onto the road.This snapshot captures the essentials of life and living in West Bengal today. A prosperity of sorts has come in recent years, which has put not just many more cars on narrow roads, but also a swarm of motorbikes. Many other lifestyle products have also arrived; but when the motorbike ride comes, everyone else steps back to make way.Many who would ride a bicycle earlier have now managed to acquire a motorbike, but the young men who flash recent models that cost nearly a lakh or more on the road are a breed a

Subir Roy: Bike your way to progress

The boom and bust saga of iron ore mining in India is slowly coming to an end with mining restrictions already extensively lifted in Karnataka

Subir Roy: The iron ore mining saga

Those not familiar with Madhya Pradesh and its commercial capital, Indore, will not know Sirpur lake. But it means a lot to those who do and they would like it to be declared a Ramsar site - one of a select group of globally designated water bodies that need to be preserved as part of man's natural heritage.While such official recognition may come one day, what has already happened is a remarkably successful effort by a trio of committed individuals that has turned around a lake in terminal decline and made it live and prosper again. In two decades of effort, they have been able to win the support of the larger citizenry and also officialdom, without which such a battle could not have been won.Sirpur lake, which covers 600 acres on the Indore-Dhar highway, was a natural habitat for birds till the eighties, when its decline began. The rainfed lake, which comes under the Indore Municipal Corporation, was the then-ruling Holkar family's gift to the city more than a hundred years ago.In th

Subir Roy: How Sirpur lake was saved

In many ways 1964 was the great divide for West Bengal; it marked the end of innocence. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] was born but the old good life continued. Pam Crain had just arrived on Park Street and I remember Padmaja Naidu, the then governor of the state, noting with satisfaction in a radio broadcast (TV would take a long time to come) that the state's farmers had brought home a record harvest.Then came the drought of 1965-66, the second food movement and life in West Bengal was never the same again. College from 1966 brought me face to face with the power of the youthful left and I came to realise that the English language had a word like "reactionary" which our school teachers had never told us existed.What was fascinating was the speed at which ideology and ground reality moved. No sooner had the Left, foremost the CPI(M), come to power than the young ideologues in college began showing distinct signs of disillusionment and, come 1969, the official challeng

Rise & fall: A ringside view of the Left

The way in which the RBI has issued two in-principle approvals for banking licences after a gap of 10 years, following a four-year process

Subir Roy: The RBI gets it right

From being periodically bashed up in students' politics brawls in Kolkata's Presidency College to the fringes of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is a long journey that has lasted nearly half a century. Its most dramatic and recent turn came the other day when the inaction enforced by the midday heat of summer was broken by a cryptic message from one-time fellow journalist Mudar Patherya saying that he had secured the AAP's nomination for the South Kolkata seat in the coming parliamentary elections.Excitement hit the roof and furious texting and congratulatory calls followed. When I moved to Kolkata from Bangalore after retirement, one look at the city told me we needed to do something. The fatal flaw was not in the government doing nothing but in citizens waiting for the government to solve all the problems.Soon enough, there we were in one stinking corner of the Maidan, just off the entertainment nerve centre Park Street, removing garbage, helped by schoolchildren and cadets of the National

Subir Roy: Engaged at the periphery

What sets Bandhan apart is the roots it has in the world of the rural poor

C S Ghosh: Tied to the bottom of the pyramid

The poor have not done all that well under Narendra Modi in Gujarat, but industry and infrastructure have

Subir Roy