Here's how Pakistan can still miss out on a Super 4 spot in Asia Cup 2025?

Pakistan's final group stage clash against the UAE has become a virtual knockout in terms of qualification for the Super 4s.

Pakistan’s path to the Asia Cup 2025 Super Four stage has become increasingly uncertain following a heavy seven-wicket defeat to India in Dubai. With only one win from two group matches, Salman Agha’s side faces a must-win situation against the UAE on September 17. However, their qualification is no longer solely in their hands. Several possible outcomes could still send Pakistan packing early from the tournament.

 

Must-Win Match vs UAE Now a Knockout Final

 

Pakistan’s final group stage clash against the UAE has become a virtual knockout. A loss will almost certainly eliminate them, as UAE has also defeated Oman, taking them to four points, while Pakistan would remain stuck on two, falling short of the Super Four. 

 

 

UAE’s Upset Would Seal Pakistan’s Fate

 

The most straightforward elimination scenario involves UAE winning their remaining match against Pakistan. This would give UAE four points and an automatic qualification, leaving Pakistan out of the equation. UAE’s net run-rate (-2.030) wouldn’t matter in this case, as they would top the group on points.

 

Weather a Minor Threat, But Not Irrelevant

 

While rain isn’t expected in Dubai, a washed-out UAE vs Oman game, combined with Pakistan losing to UAE, would mean UAE finish with three points, enough to qualify ahead of Pakistan.

 

History of Slip-Ups Against Underdogs Haunts Pakistan

 

Pakistan’s tendency to falter against lower-ranked sides makes the UAE clash risky. Their past losses to Zimbabwe and USA serve as cautionary tales, and the UAE, who troubled them recently, could spring another surprise.

 

A Must-Win Game with No Room for Error

 

Pakistan’s only clear path forward is to beat the UAE. Any other outcome could see them eliminated before the Super Four, marking a major upset in Asia Cup 2025.