Can India's cotton mission deliver without adopting new technology?

Experts argue that India's Mission for Cotton Productivity may struggle to revive yields and exports unless next-generation genetic technologies and science-led reforms are adopted

Unlike the Technology Mission on Cotton (TMC) launched under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led  government in 2002, which coincided with the introduction of the once-in-a-generation breakthrough of insect-resistant Bt cotton, the recently announced Mission for Cotton Productivity (MCP) appears to be missing its most decisive element, i.e. transformative technology. Ironically, while the NDA may have defeated the acronym ‘TMC’ in the political arena, dropping the word ‘technology’ from India’s cotton mission may not augur well for the future of the country’s cotton sector. In agriculture, particularly in cotton, technology has historically been the single biggest driver of productivity, profitability and global competitiveness.

 

 

The earlier Technology Mission on Cotton demonstrated how science-led interventions can fundamentally transform an agricultural economy. The commercialisation of insect-resistant Bt cotton technology proved to be a watershed moment in India’s cotton history, effectively controlling the devastating American bollworm while dramatically improving productivity. Between 2002 and 2015, India’s cotton productivity increased from nearly 300 kg lint per hectare to over 500 kg lint per hectare. The ripple effect extended far beyond farms, triggering unprecedented growth across the cotton-textile value chain and propelling India to become the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of cotton. Bt cotton was not merely a seed technology, but it became the foundation of India’s cotton revolution.

 

However, the momentum began to weaken after 2015, following regulatory interventions in cotton seed pricing and the absence of next-generation technology deployment. Within a decade, India lost much of its global competitive edge in cotton, while the domestic textile sector began facing severe supply constraints. By 2025, India’s cotton production had declined sharply to nearly 290 lakh bales from the historic peak of 390 lakh bales achieved in 2015. More alarming than the decline in production is the erosion of confidence among cotton farmers and stakeholders across the value chain. India, once a cotton export powerhouse, is increasingly becoming import dependent.

 

Recognising the deepening crisis, the Government of India recently approved an ambitious outlay of ₹5,659.22 crore for the Mission for Cotton Productivity for the next five years. The mission rightly identifies the pressing bottlenecks confronting the sector including stagnating yields, declining fibre quality and weaknesses across the value chain affecting the global competitiveness of Indian cotton and cotton products.

 

The mission’s emphasis on strengthening infrastructure and improving value-chain efficiency is both timely and commendable. Yet, the most formidable challenge lies in its productivity target of increasing cotton production to 498 lakh bales of 170 kg each by 2031, while simultaneously raising lint productivity from the present level of around 440 kg per hectare to 755 kg per hectare. Achieving nearly 72 per cent productivity growth within five years is unquestionably a Herculean task.

 

At the heart of the mission lies the issue that has haunted Indian cotton for over a decade: stagnant productivity. Cotton yields have hovered around 450 kg lint per hectare for almost 12 years. Unless this structural stagnation is decisively addressed, many of the mission’s broader aspirations related to the value chain, sustainability and circular economy may remain confined to policy documents.

 

The proposed strategy for productivity enhancement appears largely conventional, focusing on seed improvement for climate resilience and pest resistance, along with promotion of advanced agronomic practices such as High Density Planting System (HDPS), closer spacing, and integrated crop management. While HDPS has significant potential in rainfed cotton-growing regions of Central India with light and medium soils, its suitability for irrigated cotton and deep black soil regions has already been questioned through extensive field trials. Consequently, the technology may realistically succeed in only around 20 per cent of India’s cotton area. Even within HDPS, farmers repeatedly highlight two indispensable requirements. First, the availability of herbicide-tolerant cultivars that permit glyphosate application for effective weed management. Second, HDPS must be integrated with defoliation technologies and machine harvesting to reduce labour dependence. At present, both components continue to face technological and regulatory constraints.

 

Although India initiated field-level experimentation and large-scale demonstrations of HDPS cotton as early as 2010, its widespread adoption has remained limited due to unresolved challenges related to suitable cultivars, weed management, mechanisation and machine harvesting. In its original and currently promoted form, HDPS failed to gain broad acceptance among farmers, creating confusion not only among policymakers but also within the cotton research and extension system. Over time, farmers adapted certain principles of HDPS into a more practical and flexible model of “closer spacing,” which is now being adopted in some regions along with Bt technology, largely supported by incentive-driven promotion under schemes of the Ministry of Textiles.

 

In case of the availability of clean, contaminant-free & quality cotton, it revitalised India’s struggling ginning, spinning, and textile sectors, while strengthening India’s position in the global cotton trade. By 2007-08, India had emerged as a net cotton exporter and became one of the world’s leading cotton producers, surpassing both the United States and China. Cotton exports reached a historic peak of 116.9 lakh bales worth ₹23,153 crore in 2013-14. Since then, however, exports have steadily declined, falling to nearly 47 lakh bales worth ₹8,731 crore by 2020-21 and about 50 lakh bales in 2025-26 valued at around ₹15,000 crore.

 

This export decline mirrors the sharp fall in domestic cotton production. From the peak production of 393 lakh bales in 2013-14, India’s cotton output has gradually declined to an average range of 294-310 lakh bales over the last decade. The country is effectively losing nearly 90 lakh-95 lakh bales annually compared to its peak production levels, representing an estimated economic loss of around ₹31,000 crore in raw cotton alone. Last year, India was compelled to import nearly 50 lakh bales merely to sustain operations in domestic textile mills.

 

The deceleration in productivity is closely linked to the absence of technological upgradation in cotton genetics. As early as 2015, it became evident that the sustainability of Bollgard-II Bt cotton technology was being increasingly challenged by resistance development in the dreaded pink bollworm. Yet, despite clear warning signals, India failed to permit the deployment of next-generation genetic technologies. 

As productivity stagnated and the cost of cultivation escalated particularly labour-intensive weeding and harvesting, which together account for nearly 45 per cent of cultivation costs, farmers increasingly turned toward the unauthorised cultivation of herbicide tolerant & insect resistant (HtBt) cotton. Illegal HtBt cotton is now openly produced and sold across several cotton-growing states, reflecting not merely farmer desperation but also deep policy paralysis surrounding genetically-modified technologies.

 

Reports indicate that nearly 30 per cent of India’s cotton area last year was planted with unapproved HtBt cotton. Ironically, these technologies have already undergone multiple stages of scientific evaluation and regulatory trials as per prescribed biosafety protocols, yet farmers remain legally barred from accessing them. Despite repeated submissions and scientific reviews, regulatory uncertainty continues to persist.

 

In a recent communication from the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MOEF&CC), the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), in its recent meeting on March 20, 2026, reportedly suggested continuation of trials for Bollgard-II RRF (HtBt) on safety considerations, effectively prolonging regulatory indecision. Simultaneously, several private seed companies have developed advanced technologies incorporating genes for pink bollworm management, many of which are currently at various stages of regulatory evaluation. Unless India adopts a clear and science-based policy framework on genetically modified technologies, farmers are likely to remain deprived of legally accessible advanced cotton technologies.

 

It is encouraging that the Government has finally recognised the urgency of revitalising the cotton sector, which has been facing a severe crisis for several years. However, the magnitude of the productivity challenge demands bold interventions rooted in science, technology and pragmatic policy reforms.

 

Genetic technologies have delivered transformative outcomes in the past, and therefore, retaining confidence in them as one of the instruments for productivity enhancement deserves serious consideration. At the same time, research efforts must also intensify on agronomic and physiological interventions. While debates around genetic modification continue, alternative innovations such as mating disruption technology for pink bollworm management should be aggressively promoted.

 

India is already investing heavily in Artificial Intelligence (AI), IoT-enabled agriculture, and digital technologies for productivity enhancement. Encouragingly, Indian scientists have made notable progress in developing AI-based pest and disease monitoring systems at pilot scales. Such systems along with conventional pheromone trap-based system can play a crucial role in delivering timely advisories, early warning systems and precision management recommendations to farmers through digital and mass communication platforms. 

Similarly, regenerative cotton production systems focused on enhancing soil carbon through biochar, organic matter enrichment, drop fertigation and sustainable soil-health management have demonstrated promising results. Integration of regenerative practices with carbon cotton farming can create new economic opportunities for farmers while simultaneously improving sustainability and resilience.

 

India’s cotton future cannot be secured through incremental measures alone. The country requires a bold, technology-driven, science-led cotton revival strategy that restores farmer confidence, enhances competitiveness and rebuilds India’s leadership in the global cotton economy. The Mission for Cotton Productivity can become a historic turning point but only if it addresses the central question honestly, productivity growth without technology breakthroughs may remain an aspiration rather than an achievement. 

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(The authors are, respectively, president and founder-director of the South Asia Biotechnology Centre, Jodhpur)

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