US cotton exports to India rise on lower prices, tariff uncertainties

US upland cotton exports to India have risen in the past few months fueled by global tariff conflicts, declining American prices and rising demand in the South Asian country, industry experts said.

Exports to India from February to April jumped to 155,260 running bales, from 25,901 shipped during a year ago period, according to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) data. The exports hit an over 2-1/2-year high in the week of February 20.

The increase comes as Washington-Beijing trade tensions escalate, reducing US cotton exports to China. China will impose 125 per cent tariffs on US goods, up from the 84 per cent previously announced, the finance ministry said on Friday.

 

With these tariffs and a drop in China's demand, upland cotton grown in Texas and other regions is now finding a market in India, according to Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Advisors.

At the same time, exports to China are expected to decrease, said Justin Cardwell, head of research and technology at Alternative Option.

India is the world's second-largest cotton producer after China, as well as one of the world's largest cotton yarn processors and exporters. However, declining yields have recently turned the country from a net exporter to a net importer of the fibre.

India mainly imports Extra Long Staple (ELS) cotton from the US, benefiting from a 10 per cent duty exemption, unlike short staple cotton which has an 11 per cent import duty.

"The US ELS cotton remains cost-effective for many Indian buyers due to its higher ginning efficiency, better lint yield, and superior fibre quality," said Kedia.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) this year lowered its cotton production estimate by 250,000 bales to 30.1 million bales, marking a 7.84 per cent drop from the 2023-24 season.

ICE cotton futures have dropped nearly 5 per cent so far this year.

India could see a cotton shortfall of 2.5 million bales this year, a gap that could be bridged with increased imports, said Y. G. Prasad, director of Central Institute for Cotton Research.

India's cotton imports in 2024/25 are expected to double due to falling production, according to the CAI. India also imports cotton from Australia, Brazil, and Egypt.