China's nuclear arsenal growing fastest globally, may hit 1,500 by 2035

Even with 1,500 warheads by 2035, China's nuclear arsenal would still be only about one-third the size of Russia's or the US's current stockpiles

China’s nuclear arsenal is growing faster than that of any other country, adding roughly 100 new warheads per year since 2023, according to estimates by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). In its annual report on armaments, disarmament, and international security released on Monday, the institute said China is now estimated to hold at least 600 nuclear warheads.

 

ICBM silos and long-term nuclear ambitions

 

By January 2025, China had either completed or was nearing completion of around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos. These silos span three major desert sites in the north and three mountainous regions in the east of the country.

 

 

If China maintains its current trajectory, it could possess a number of ICBMs comparable to those of Russia or the United States by 2030. Still, even if China reaches the upper estimate of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, this would amount to only about one-third of the current arsenals of the US or Russia.

 

Sipri flags risks of a new arms race

 

Sipri Director Dan Smith raised concerns about the weakening of nuclear arms control frameworks and the risk of a renewed arms race. “China is increasing its nuclear force steadily,” Smith warned, adding that the country could potentially reach 1,000 warheads within the next seven to eight years.   

 

Israel, India and Pakistan also expanding capabilities

 

Israel—while officially maintaining strategic ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons—is believed to be upgrading its arsenal. In 2024, it tested a missile propulsion system, potentially linked to its Jericho series of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. Israel also appears to be enhancing its plutonium production reactor at the Dimona facility.

 

India, meanwhile, expanded its nuclear stockpile in 2024 and continued developing new types of delivery systems, including ‘canisterised’ missiles. Once fully developed, these systems could enable India to store missiles with warheads already mounted and may allow for multiple warheads per missile.

 

Pakistan also advanced its nuclear programme in 2024, developing new delivery systems and increasing its fissile material stock. Sipri analysts say this indicates a likely expansion of Pakistan’s arsenal in the coming years.

 

India-Pakistan tensions nearly spark nuclear crisis

 

Earlier in 2025, military tensions between India and Pakistan escalated into a brief armed conflict. According to Sipri, this episode included strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and saw a surge in third-party disinformation campaigns.

 

“The combination of strikes on nuclear-related military infrastructure and third-party disinformation risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,” said Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher at Sipri’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director at the Nuclear Information Project at FAS. “This should act as a stark warning for states seeking to increase their reliance on nuclear weapons.

 

Global nuclear stockpile in 2025

 

As of January 2025, the global nuclear stockpile was estimated at 12,241 warheads. Of these, about 9,614 were in military stockpiles and available for potential use. Around 3,912 warheads were deployed on missiles or aircraft, with the rest held in central storage.

 

Approximately 2,100 of these deployed warheads were kept on high operational alert and mounted on ballistic missiles—nearly all of them belonging to either Russia or the United States. However, Sipri now suggests that China may also be maintaining some of its warheads in a launch-ready state during peacetime.