Rupee may come under pressure as Strait of Hormuz blockade continues

The Indian unit closed Friday at 92.93/$ compared to the previous close of 93.20/$, gaining 0.3 per cent

The rupee, which has appreciated 2.1 per cent against the dollar so far in April, is likely to face depreciation pressure this week, tracking elevated crude oil prices, with efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz yet to yield results.

 

After depreciating by more than 4 per cent in March — prompting regulatory measures such as capping banks’ open positions in the onshore derivatives market and opening a dollar window for oil companies — the currency stabilised.

 

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill on Sunday, news agency Reuters reported, after Iran reasserted control over the strategic waterway, a key route for global energy supply, days before a fragile ceasefire with the US was set to expire.

 

“As things stand, the rupee is expected to open around or slightly below 93 on Monday, largely confined within the 92-93 range,” said V R C Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank. 

 

The Indian unit closed at 92.93 per dollar on Friday, up 0.3 per cent from the previous close of 93.2 per dollar.

 

“We expect emerging-market (EM) currencies to underperform amid dollar weakness and the rupee to underperform among EM currencies. We see a 92-93.5 range for the rupee over the next six weeks,” IFA Global said in a report.

 

Apart from elevated oil prices, foreign fund outflows and a widening current account deficit (CAD) will exert pressure on the Indian unit. “Any short-term movement will remain sensitive to overnight developments, as even a single headline or X post can shift sentiment. Unless we see a meaningful reversal in capital flows and stronger underlying fundamentals, further sustained appreciation of the rupee appears unlikely in the near term,” Reddy said.

 

Economists have projected CAD to widen to 1.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2026–27, with a likely balance of payments deficit of $25 billion.