Possible H-1B visa restrictions under Trump: A win-lose situation for India

US President-elect Donald Trump’s possible H-1B visa restrictions may encourage India’s self-reliance efforts under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative. A report by the State Bank of India (SBI), released on Monday, suggests that while tighter visa rules would likely increase costs for Indian IT firms in the US, they could also lead India to focus more on local manufacturing and economic independence.

 

"Stricter H-1B rules may increase costs for Indian IT companies in the US, potentially reducing labour mobility and pressuring these firms to hire locally at higher costs," the SBI report stated. "On the other hand, this shift may allow India to advance reforms in domestic production, self-sufficiency, and foreign investment.”

 

 

What is the H-1B visa programme?

 

The H-1B visa programme enables US employers to bring in skilled foreign professionals for specialised roles that require particular qualifications. According to the US Department of Labour, the visa is intended to fill roles when qualified local workers are unavailable. Each financial year, the government limits new H-1B visas to 65,000, with an extra 20,000 set aside for individuals holding a US master’s degree or higher. Workers in education, non-profit, or research sectors are exempt from this cap.

 

Trump’s stance on H-1B visas

 

Trump has consistently criticised the H-1B programme, claiming it reduces job opportunities for American workers. During his previous term, H-1B visa rejection rates rose sharply, complicating the hiring processes for Indian IT firms. In 2020, Trump’s administration attempted to implement higher minimum wage requirements for H-1B visa holders, though this move was later blocked in US courts.

 

Under Trump’s initial term, non-immigrant visas issued each year remained steady at about 1 million. However, in 2023, the number of non-immigrant visas granted to Indians rose substantially, with approximately 1.4 million Indians securing these visas, the SBI report noted.

 

“As the US moves to protect its own workforce, India may see an opportunity to reinforce its domestic production capabilities and make inward investment more attractive,” the report observed.

 

However, Ajay Sharma, an immigration expert and founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, believes Trump’s return could lead to fresh opportunities for Indians seeking legal immigration routes.

 

Sharma explained, “Trump’s platform focused on deporting illegal migrants, and with an estimated 10 million undocumented people in the US, his actions could open doors for skilled migrants. Indians, who largely use legal routes like the H-1B for work or F-1 for study, may find new opportunities in the US if the administration prioritises skilled migration over family-based immigration.”

 

“During his previous term, Trump hinted at introducing a points-based system similar to Canada and Australia. If he revives this approach, it could pave the way for skilled Indian migrants. Right now, the US system is family-based, which Trump believes contributes less economically compared to skilled migrants,” he said.

 

Indians lead in H-1B visas

 

Indians constitute the largest group of H-1B visa holders, as data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) confirms. In financial year 2023, Indians received 72.3% (279,000) of the total 386,000 H-1B visas, while Chinese nationals accounted for 11.7%. The programme predominantly covers computer-related roles, which accounted for 65% of H-1B visas in 2023. Other fields include architecture and engineering at 9.5%, and education at 6%. Median salaries for H-1B holders in 2023 stood at $118,000.