US 5% cap on foreign students may hit Indian undergraduates the hardest

US cap on foreign students Visa: The White House proposal to limit foreign undergraduates to 15% per campus and 5% per country has raised worries among Indian students and education experts

The United States of America’s plan to cap international undergraduate students at 15 per cent per campus, with no more than 5 per cent from any single country, has caused unease among global students—especially in India, which sends one of the largest cohorts to American universities.

 

What the White House proposal says

 

Earlier this month, the White House sent a memo to nine universities outlining a proposal that ties federal funding to new conditions. These include limiting international undergraduate enrolment to 15 per cent overall and capping any single country at 5 per cent.

 

The memo is not a universal policy but a selective, funding-linked proposal. Many reports have overlooked that it is currently targeted and conditional, not nationwide.

 

 

Education consultants told Business Standard that if implemented, this could be one of the most restrictive measures for foreign students in recent years.

 

“Capping undergraduate enrolment at 15 per cent, and further limiting any single country to 5 per cent, would immediately shrink opportunities for Indian applicants. The US has traditionally been the top choice for Indian students, with tens of thousands pursuing undergraduate degrees each year. A country-level cap would mean even highly qualified students could be turned away simply because the quota for India had been filled,” said Ritesh Jain, Co-founder, LaunchEd Global.

 

How the cap on Visa could affect Indian students

 

Jain said the impact would go well beyond admissions. “Students and families plan years in advance, investing in test preparation, counselling, and applications. The possibility of being blocked by a policy cap introduces a new layer of uncertainty. Many may reconsider the US and redirect their ambitions towards countries like Canada, the UK, or Germany, where admission policies are perceived as more stable and inclusive,” he said.

 

Dr Umesh Kothari, Assistant Dean, GMBA, MGB and GCGM Programmes at SP Jain School of Global Management, said the proposal adds to an already difficult environment.

 

“This move introduces uncertainty at a time when students are already grappling with financial pressures, visa delays, and shifting job markets,” said Kothari.

 

He added, “Nowadays, more students are looking at education with a return-on-investment lens. The focus is shifting from ‘where’ you study to ‘what outcomes’ the degree can deliver in terms of jobs, networks, and long-term opportunities. In today’s climate, being flexible, planning, and keeping multiple destinations in mind are becoming essential for anyone considering international education.”

 

What the policy means for diversity on US campuses

 

Saurabh Arora, Founder and CEO, University Living, said the move could reshape classroom diversity in US universities.

 

“Diversity now includes varied academic perspectives, global collaboration-driven innovation, and expanded peer networks. A reduction in the international student population may lead to less diverse educational environments and fewer opportunities for all students to engage with new ideas,” said Arora.

 

He added that restricting international intake could also weaken America’s talent pipeline. “Such a move could affect the U.S.’s ability to attract skilled global talent, particularly in STEM fields where Indian students contribute significantly. Many of these students move into the US workforce through H-1B visas, driving innovation and addressing skill gaps. This policy may influence the future competitiveness of technology, research, and entrepreneurship sectors,” said Arora.

 

Indian students’ economic contribution to the US

 

According to the University Living Indian Student Mobility Report 2023–24, Indian students collectively contributed around $12.5 billion to the US economy in one academic year through tuition, housing, and living costs.

 

Breakdown of annual spending by Indian students in the US:

• Tuition: $7.2 billion

• Accommodation: $2.9 billion

• Other living expenses: $2.4 billion

• Average per student annual spend: $52,000

 

Most Indian students spend between $30,000 and $60,000 annually depending on their course and institution. The report projects that tuition costs could rise further in 2025, with averages expected to fall between $40,000 and $45,000.

 

“For Indian aspirants, the message is clear: Relying solely on the US is becoming increasingly risky, and exploring multiple destinations is now a practical necessity,” said Jain.

 

Actual numbers show most US campuses below 15 per cent threshold

 

Despite rising concern, official figures suggest that the overall share of foreign undergraduates in the US remains well below any proposed cap. According to Forbes, there are about 343,000 international undergraduates in the US, down 1.4 per cent from the previous year, out of a total undergraduate population of around 15.3 million. That equals roughly 2.2 per cent of all undergraduates nationwide.

 

Top-ranked universities together offer over 6 million undergraduate seats. Launchpad Rankings list 780 institutions enrolling 6.13 million students. Even with a 15 per cent cap, campuses could still accommodate more than 900,000 international undergraduates—leaving about 600,000 potential places open.