'Greatest threat': Elon Musk warns of population decline in India, China

The Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account, which originally shared the data, emphasised the seriousness of the issue, stating, 'Population collapse is humanity's greatest threat'

Elon Musk has once again raised alarm about the world's declining population, calling it one of humanity's greatest threats. Taking to X (formerly Twitter), Musk shared a graph highlighting projected population changes between 2018 and 2100, drawing attention to dramatic demographic shifts in countries like Nigeria, the US, China, and India.

 

The graph was initially posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account, accompanied by the caption: "Population collapse is humanity's greatest threat... Elon Musk." Musk retweeted it with a "Yes."

 

Yes https://t.co/iiacYs29ju

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 7, 2025

 

A declining trend with global implications

 

Experts have long acknowledged the reality of population decline, but the speed and scale of the crisis remain hotly debated. Declining fertility rates, ageing populations, and emigration are the main factors driving this trend. For a population to remain stable, the average number of children per woman needs to be 2.1— a threshold most countries are failing to meet.

 

 

The problem is starkly evident in the United Kingdom (UK), where the fertility rate in England and Wales hit an all-time low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is part of a broader global trend: fertility rates have plummeted from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to less than half that figure today, as reported by the Daily Express.

 

Dramatic shifts in population projections

 

The graph, first published in 2020, illustrates the profound changes anticipated by the end of this century. In 2018, both India and China had populations of approximately 1.5 billion. By 2100, however, these figures are projected to diverge sharply. India’s population is expected to decline to just under 1.1 billion— a reduction of 400 million. China faces an even steeper drop, with its population projected to plummet to 731.9 million, a staggering loss of 731 million people. If these projections hold, Nigeria will become the second-most populous nation in the world by 2100, with a population of 790.1 million.

 

A 2020 report by researchers at the University of Washington also suggests that the decline in countries like China and India may occur even faster than previously anticipated. Such rapid changes could reshape global economic and political landscapes.

 

Migration offers a buffer for some nations

 

While many nations grapple with declining fertility rates, the US is expected to maintain its position as the fourth-largest country in the world by 2100, thanks to positive net migration. Similarly, Canada and Australia are projected to sustain relatively stable populations through migration policies.

 

Other countries, like Indonesia and Pakistan, will see slight population declines, while African nations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are poised for significant growth. By the end of the century, these two countries are expected to surpass current population giants like Indonesia and Pakistan.