IMD launches two AI-enabled monsoon forecast models for first time in India

IMD says 2026 monsoon likely to reach parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by the weekend

Climate change is making weather forecasting more complex, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday to launch the country’s first artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled monsoon advance forecasting model that can predict the onset of the monsoon at the block level up to four weeks in advance.

 

The IMD also launched a pilot project developed by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) for high-resolution rainfall forecasting in Uttar Pradesh using advanced AI systems. The pilot can generate rainfall forecasts at a spatial resolution of a 1 kilometre (km) grid.

 

The launch comes at a time when the 2026 southwest monsoon is projected to be below normal across most parts of the country, though the IMD said the new models have no correlation with the seasonal forecast.

 

 

According to IMD, both systems aim to deliver hyperlocal, impact-based, and AI-driven weather services across the country. The models were developed in consultation with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, and their outputs will be shared with farmers through application programming interfaces developed by the ministry and through the Agri Stack platform.

 

“The block-level monsoon onset forecast model combines existing numerical weather prediction models with AI to generate probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance, with a model error margin of around four days,” Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Jitendra Singh said while launching the two models.

 

The forecasting system currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, largely concentrated in rainfed regions where monsoon onset plays a critical role in agriculture and water management. The coverage will gradually be expanded to other parts of the country.

 

M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the block-level monsoon advance forecasting system will base its assessment on the onset of a continuous five-day rainfall spell and the absence of prolonged dry spells over the subsequent 30 days. “This innovative system will be of immense help in agricultural planning, disaster management and water resources management,” Singh said.

 

On the Uttar Pradesh pilot, Singh said the system will generate rainfall forecasts at 1 km spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance. The system uses AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates data from automatic rain gauges, automatic weather stations, Doppler weather radars, and satellite-based rainfall datasets. It is expected to help farmers take more informed decisions on sowing, irrigation, crop protection and harvesting with greater local precision.

 

Monsoon currents begin to build

 

In a related development, the IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week. The department said it will issue further updates on the monsoon’s progress later this month.

 

In other parts of the country, heatwave conditions are likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan during the next six to seven days, and over East Rajasthan, adjoining parts of Central India, Gujarat and Maharashtra during the next four to five days.

 

Reading the rains with AI

 

• IMD launches AI-enabled block-level monsoon advance forecast model
• NCMRWF unveils pilot for high-resolution rainfall forecast in Uttar Pradesh
• New system predicts rainfall at 1 km grid resolution, compared with the earlier 12.5 km scale
• AI-based monsoon onset model currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory
• Most covered blocks lie in rainfed regions where monsoon timing is critical for farming and disaster preparedness