India most vulnerable amid extreme heat risks, says new Oxford study

India is likely to face some of the worst effects of rising temperatures as extreme heat spreads across the world, said a new study by the University of Oxford. The research shows that climate change will expose billions of people to dangerously hot conditions, with India among the most vulnerable because of its large population and already warm climate.

 

The study warns that if global warming reaches two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2050, nearly half of the world’s population will be living with extreme heat. Scientists have said that this level of warming now looks increasingly likely.

 

What does the study say?

Published in the journal Nature Sustainability, the Oxford study estimates that around 3.79 billion people could be exposed to extreme heat by 2050. This would mean about four in every 10 people worldwide living in dangerously hot conditions.

 

The researchers also warn that much of the damage will happen even earlier. As the planet crosses the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit set under the Paris Agreement, the number of people affected by extreme heat is expected to rise quickly.

 

“Our study shows most of the changes in cooling and heating demand occur before reaching the one point five degree threshold, which will require significant adaptation measures to be implemented early on,” said Dr Jesus Lizana, associate professor in Engineering Science.

Why India is at high risk

India is expected to have one of the largest populations exposed to extreme heat. Other countries facing similar risks include Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines. These nations already deal with frequent heatwaves, pressure on water resources and rising electricity demand.

 

As temperatures rise further, daily life could become harder for millions of people, affecting their health, ability to work and access to basic services.

Which other countries will be affected?

While hotter countries will see the largest number of people affected, colder countries will experience the biggest change compared to their past climate. The study found that countries such as Austria and Canada could see the number of uncomfortably hot days double. The United Kingdom may see an increase of around 150 per cent, while Norway and Ireland could see even larger increases.

 

The study noted that because homes and cities in these places are built mainly for cold weather, even moderate increases in temperature could cause serious problems.

What are the major risks?

The rise in extreme heat is expected to affect many areas of life. Health risks are likely to grow, with more heat-related illnesses and deaths. Education may be disrupted as schools struggle to cope with high temperatures. Farming could suffer due to stress on crops, and more people may be forced to migrate from overheated regions.

 

Energy demand is also expected to rise sharply as more households and offices turn to cooling systems. At the same time, some colder countries may see a fall in demand for heating.

 

Dr Radhika Khosla, Associate Professor at the University of Oxford, said, “Overshooting 1.5 degrees of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming.”

What can be done?

The researchers stressed that action is needed urgently. Cities and buildings need to be redesigned to cope better with heat, while countries must also cut carbon emissions. “To achieve the global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, we must decarbonise the building sector while developing more effective and resilient adaptation strategies,” Dr Lizana said.

 

Dr Khosla added that moving towards net-zero development remains the only proven way to stop the trend of ever hotter days and urged political leaders to act quickly.