Antique reaffirms 'Buy' on Jindal Steel; expects expansions to fuel profit

Jindal Steel (JSL) is poised for growth and improved profitability, driven by higher volumes and an enhanced product mix from its Angul expansion, said brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking, while maintaining its Buy rating on the stock.  The brokerage believes that cost efficiencies from increased captive coal, a slurry pipeline, and higher captive power generation will support margins, while JSL’s strong balance sheet is expected to fund its Phase II expansion plans.

 

Antique has set a target price of ₹1,171 per share, based on a 7.0x EV/Ebitda multiple for 1HFY28. At 12:44 PM on Wednesday, Jindal Steel shares were trading at ₹1,005. 20, down 0.73 per cent from the previous close of ₹1,012.60 on the NSE.

 

 

The brokerage highlighted that the company has recently commissioned one of India’s largest blast furnaces (BF-II; 4.6 mtpa) and a basic oxygen furnace (BOF-II; 3 mtpa) at its Angul integrated steel plant. The company plans to expand its liquid steel-making capacity from 9.6 mtpa to 15.6 mtpa and its finished steel capacity from 7.3 mtpa to 13.8 mtpa by FY27. By 2030, Angul is set to become the world’s largest single-location steel-making complex.

Domestic steel demand remains robust

While domestic steel prices have softened by 2–5 per cent quarter-on-quarter, spot hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices have shown slight month-on-month recovery. Provisional Joint Plant Committee data indicates a 7.4 per cent year-on-year rise in finished steel consumption to 105.2 MT between April and November 2025. A seasonal uptick in demand is expected to support prices.

 

"Additionally, JSL’s growing share of value-added products (VAPs) in its sales mix—73 percent in 2QFY26 versus 58 percent in 2QFY25—should bolster profitability,” said Antique in its report. Management has guided FY26 sales volumes of 8.5–9.0 MT, up from 8.0 MT in FY25, driven by the new blast furnace at Angul. "Despite softer steel prices, higher volumes are expected to drive top-line growth," it said.

 

Antique noted that average domestic HRC prices for 3QFY26TD stood at ₹47,029 per ton, down 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 1.5 per cent year-on-year, while rebar prices averaged ₹47,108 per ton, slightly higher than HRC but down 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter. JSL’s long products portfolio, which accounts for 51 per cent of 2QFY26 sales, benefits from this pricing.

 

The brokerage further expects the ramp-up of BF-II, BOF-II, and a 6 mtpa hot strip mill to support volume growth and expand the flat product portfolio. The company also commissioned a 1,710 TPD oxygen plant and its first continuous galvanising line at the Cold Rolling Mill complex, further improving its product mix. Ongoing expansions at Angul include BOF-III (3 mtpa), Pellet Plant II (6 mtpa), and the 1,050 MW Shreebhoomi power plant, all progressing as scheduled, said Antique.  CATCH STOCK MARKET LIVE UPDATES TODAY

Captive resources, strong balance sheet

According to Antique, JSL’s captive resources are expected to boost profitability. Five thermal coal blocks in India currently supply the company, with Utkal C and Gare Palma IV/6 running at full capacity. Mining at Utkal B1 is set to begin in 4QFY26, and exploration at Saradhapur Jalatap East (3,257 MT) is underway. Captive coal met 96 per cent of 2QFY26 requirements, with full self-sufficiency expected once all blocks are operational. "Iron ore output from Tensa and Kasia mines (2.0 MT in 2QFY26, 45 per cent of consumption) is increasing, supported by the slurry pipeline (90 per cent complete) and coal pipe conveyor (95 per cent complete)," said the brokerage in its report.

 

On leverage, Antique noted that JSL’s consolidated net debt stood at ₹14,160 crore at the end of 2QFY26, down 1.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter, with a net debt to Ebitda ratio of 1.48x—the best among its Indian peers. The company has guided annual capex for FY26 at ₹7,500–10,000 crore. While near-term debt may rise due to working capital needs from new operations, JSL’s disciplined capital allocation is expected to fund its remaining expansions without major debt concerns. 

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