Axis Bank Q2 preview: Profit may fall upto 24% on weak NIM, high provisions

Axis Bank Q2 results expectations: Axis Bank Q2 results on Oct 15 may show 20-24 per cent profit drop as margins shrink and provisions rise. Here's what brokerages expect for Q2FY26 performance

Axis Bank Q2 results preview: Axis Bank will start off the Q2 2025 results season for private banks on Wednesday, October 15, 2025. 

 

According to analysts, the lender’s financial results for the quarter ended on September 30, 2025 (Q2FY26) may reveal pressure on net profit and margins as it may have adjusted its interest rates amid the rate cut cycle by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

 

Axis Bank Q2 results date and time

Axis Bank is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Wednesday, October 15, 2025.

 

“A meeting of the Board of Directors of Axis Bank will be held on Wednesday, October 15, 2025, inter alia to consider and approve the unaudited standalone and consolidated financial results of the Bank, for the quarter and half year ended September 30, 2025,” the bank said in its regulatory filing.  ALSO READ | Tech Mahindra Q2 preview: IT major to see profit uptick led by margin boost

 

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Axis Bank Q2 2025 results expectations:

Nomura 

The global brokerage predicts a 19 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) drop in Axis Bank’s Q2 net profit, at ₹5,640 crore from ₹6,920 crore seen in Q2FY25. 

 

On a sequential basis, the profit may decline by 3 per cent from ₹5,810 crore seen in Q1FY26. 

 

The sharp erosion in the bank’s net profit, as per Nomura, would likely be on the back of weak operating income and higher provisions (yearly).

 

As per its estimates, Axis Bank’s provisions may surge 31 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,880 crore from ₹2,200 crore. On a quarterly basis, though, they may dip 27 per cent. 

 

Further, with 10 per cent Y-o-Y rise each in loans and deposits, Nomura sees the bank’s net interest margin compressing 44 basis points Y-o-Y and 25bps Q-o-Q to 3.6 per cent in Q2FY26. 

Kotak Institutional Equities

Similar to Nomura, analysts at Kotak, too, expect Axis Bank’s net profit to tumble around 24 per cent Y-o-Y and 10 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹5,251.3 crore in Q2FY26.

 

This, they said, was on the back of an 11-per cent yearly and 17 per cent quarterly decline in pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) to ₹9,549.1 crore.

 

The same was ₹10,712.5 crore in Q2FY25 and ₹11,515.2 crore in Q1FY26.

 

That apart, Kotak pencils in a 3 per cent Y-o-Y slide in net interest income (NII) at ₹13,035.6 crore. NII may dip 4 per cent Q-o-Q. 

 

“We are building loan growth of 9 per cent Y-o-Y (3 per cent Q-o-Q), seen at ₹10,91,500 crore. Deposits, too, could grow 11 per cent Y-o-Y and 3.5 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹12,02,300 crore. Thus, we are building NIM contraction of 10bps Q-o-Q to 3.5 per cent to factor the impact of the rate cut cycle. Fee income growth could be sluggish, reflecting weak loan 

growth,” the brokerage said.

 

On the asset quality front, Kotak Institutional Equities said Axis Bank’s provisions may jump 19 per cent on year to ₹2,340 crore, with slippages seen at 2.2 per cent of loans (₹6,000 crore).

 

The brokerage estimates cost of funds at 5.04 per cent (down 33 bps Y-o-Y/15 bps Q-o-Q), and credit costs at 0.87 per cent (up 7 bps Y-o-Y/down 62 bps Q-o-Q).

Motilal Oswal Financial Services

MOFSL expects Axis Bank’s bottomline to be hit by higher operating expenses and provisions, which may outweigh the marginal decline in operating income in Q2FY26.

 

According to the brokerage’s estimates, Axis Bank may report NII of ₹13,170 crore (down 2.3 per cent Y-o-Y) and PPOP of ₹10,350 crore (down 3.4 per cent). Yet, its net profit could decrease by 20 per cent on year to ₹5,530 crore on the back of 95.3 per cent annual surge in opex (₹19,870 crore) and 36 per cent Y-o-Y jump in provisions (₹3,000 crore). 

 

Further, the brokerage estimates Axis Bank’s Q2 loan growth at 8.6 per cent Y-o-Y (₹10.9 trillion) and deposit growth at 10.1 per cent (₹12 trillion), putting pressure on NIMs. 

 

Gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio could deteriorate to 1.7 per cent from 1.6 per cent Q-o-Q, even as NNPA may stay flat for the period. 

 

MOFSL said cost ratios and credit costs may stay elevated in Q2FY26. 

ICICI Securities

This brokerage pegs Axis Bank’s net profit at ₹5,319.4 crore, a 23 per cent Y-o-Y and 8.4 per cent Q-o-Q decline. 

 

Operationally, NII is seen at ₹12,928.3 crore (down 4 per cent Y-o-Y) and PPOP at ₹10,311.5 crore (down 3.7 per cent Y-o-Y).

 

The brokerage expects NIM to contract 40bps Y-o-Y and 21bps Q-o-Q to 3.59 per cent. It 

estimates Axis Bank to report a sharp improvement in slippages rate to 2.0 per cent vs 3.1 per cent Q-o-Q but still higher than 1.8 per cent Y-o-Y.