HDFC Bank, Airtel, HUL: Motilal Oswal picks 10 stocks with up to 24% upside

Stocks to buy, September 2025: HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement are among 10 picks by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management, which can provide up to 24 per cent upside

Stocks to buy, September 2025: Indian equities have delivered modest gains so far in 2025, with the Sensex and Nifty up around 5 per cent, even as global volatility rose on account of tariff actions by US President Donald Trump.

 

Domestically, resilience has come from steady institutional flows, aided by supportive policy moves. Recent goods and services tax (GST) reforms — including rate cuts on personal care, packaged foods, cement, apparel, footwear, and hotel tariffs — along with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) 50 basis point repo rate cut in June, have provided additional support to consumption and growth.

 

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Against this backdrop of external headwinds and local policy tailwinds, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management has identified 10 stocks across largecaps and mid/smallcaps that could deliver up to 24 per cent upside.  Track Stock Market LIVE Updates 

Credit: Motilal Oswal Wealth Management (Valuation snapshot)

Among the largecaps, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management prefers:

HDFC Bank | Target: ₹1,150 | Upside: 19 per cent

HDFC Bank is expected to deliver steady growth as loan growth tracks system levels, supported by rural recovery, MSME lending, and business banking. With integration benefits from the HDFC merger expected to flow through, analysts forecast FY27E RoA/RoE at 1.9 per cent/14.9 per cent. RoE refers to return on equity, and RoA refers to return on assets.

Bharti Airtel | Target ₹2,285 | Upside: 21 per cent

Strong free cash flow generation of ₹1 trillion over FY26–27, aided by lower capex intensity post FY25, positions Airtel for deleveraging and shareholder return. A 15 per cent India tariff hike in December 2025 and double-digit Africa growth are expected to support a 14–17 per cent revenue/Ebitda CAGR in FY25–28.

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) | Target ₹3,000 | Upside: 14 per cent

HUL remains a structurally strong fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) play with rural recovery, premiumisation, and digital-first acquisitions like Minimalist and Oziva as growth levers, according to analysts. A GST rate cut from 18 to 5 per cent on personal care and packaged foods should boost volumes. Analysts model FY25–28 revenue/Ebitda/APAT CAGR of 7 per cent/7 per cent/8 per cent, underpinned by benign input costs and supportive policies.

UltraTech Cement | Target: ₹14,600 | Upside: 16 per cent

UltraTech remains best placed to benefit from robust cement demand led by infrastructure and housing. Net debt is expected to reduce from ₹16,300 crore in FY25 to ₹3,000 crore in FY28, aided by strong free cash flow. A potential GST rate cut from 28 per cent to 18 per cent could further support demand. Analysts forecast FY25–28 CAGR of 14 per cent/25 per cent/30 per cent in revenue/Ebitda/PAT, driven by 12 per cent volume growth.

Nippon AMC | Target: ₹930 | Upside: 15 per cent

Beyond mutual funds, the firm is scaling alternative investment funds (₹8,100 crore in commitments) and offshore assets (₹16,600 crore AUM). Analysts model revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR of 14 per cent/16 per cent/15 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E.

Mid/Smallcap ideas:

Vishal Mega Mart | Target: ₹170 | Upside: 11 per cent

The brokerage expects GST cut on apparel and footwear to 5 per cent, below mid-premium ranges, likely to drive stronger value retail demand for the company. It forecasts revenue/PAT CAGR of 19 per cent/24 per cent over FY25–28, driven by steady store additions and margin gains.

Radico Kaitan| Target: ₹3,250 | Upside: 18 per cent

Radico Khaitan is set for long-term growth driven by aggressive expansion in the premium and luxury spirits segment, leveraging brands such as 8PM, Magic Moments, and Rampur Single Malt, the brokerage noted. Analysts project FY25–28 revenue/Ebitda/APAT CAGR of 16 per cent/22 per cent/30 per cent, aided by premiumisation and operating leverage.

Lemon Tree | Target: ₹200 | Upside: 14 per cent

Lemon Tree has expanded with six new property signings, adding 413 rooms. Growth levers include Aurika Mumbai stabilisation, a robust 7,770-room management contract pipeline, and the rebranding of Red Fox hotels. A GST cut on rooms priced below ₹7,500 is expected to aid occupancies. Analysts see revenue/Ebitda/adjusted PAT CAGR of 13 per cent/16 per cent/34 per cent over FY25–27.

Time Techno | Target: ₹578 | Upside: 22 per cent

Strong demand for its value-added composites, coupled with an annual free cash flow of over ₹400 crore, positions it for net cash by FY27. Analysts estimate revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR of 15%/16%/23% over FY25–28.

Ellenbarrie | Target: ₹680 | Upside: 24 per cent

Ellenbarrie has grown capacity 4.5x in FY23–25 to 3,870 tpd, with a target of 4,630 tpd by FY27. Benefiting from a diversified client base across steel, pharma/chemicals, engineering, defence, and energy, the company has raised Ebitda margins to 35.1 per cent in FY25 (from 16.4 per cent in FY23). Analysts expect FY25–28 revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR of 39 per cent/49 per cent/52 per cent, driven by argon gas ramp-up, green energy initiatives, and efficiency gains.