MCX shares rise over 3%; HDFC Securities retains 'Buy' for 19% upside

MCX share price target: HDFC Securities has maintained a 'Buy' rating on MCX stock and raised its target price to ₹2,950 from ₹2,780

MCX share price target   Shares of Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) today surged more than 3 per cent amid a broader market rally and after HDFC Securities reiterated a ‘BUY’ rating on the stock, with an increased target price. MCX shares opened with a 2 per cent gain at ₹2,469 and went on to hit an intraday high of ₹2,497.70, up 3.25 per cent.

 

As of 1:25 PM, MCX shares were trading 2.50 per cent higher at ₹2,479, with more than 2.3 million shares changing hands.

 

According to analysts at HDFC Securities, MCX continues to deliver a compelling growth story, powered by new product launches, a stable technology platform, regulatory tailwinds, and rising commodity participation.

 

 

The brokerage firm has maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raised its target price to ₹2,950 from ₹2,780. The fresh target price implies an upside of around 19 per cent from the current market price.

 

Analysts expect MCX to post a record performance in Q4FY26, with revenue estimated at ₹8.92 billion, up 34.1 per cent Q-o-Q and 26.3 per cent Y-o-Y. Profit after tax (PAT) is expected at ₹5.5 billion, up 37.2 per cent Q-o-Q and 206.3 per cent Y-o-Y.

 

They noted that MCX's options portfolio is now well-diversified, with bullion contracts (gold and silver) accounting for a significant share of options volumes, compared to the earlier dominance of energy contracts. As per the report, gold and silver contracts contribute 30 per cent of options average daily trading volume (ADTV). 

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“The options volumes surged significantly in Q4FY26E due to a sharp increase in bullion volumes in January 2026, followed by a surge in crude volumes due to tensions in the Middle East in March 2026,” analysts said. They expect volumes to normalise in Q1FY27E as volatility eases, declining 25 per cent Q-o-Q.

 

They added that the options premium base has now shifted from ₹35-45 billion to ₹70-80 billion in a normalised environment. Global volatility could even push premiums to ₹130-150 billion.

 

The brokerage expects notional/premium volumes to register a 56/42 per cent CAGR over FY25-28E and has raised its revenue and EPS estimates by 7-13 per cent to reflect the Q4 uptick. However, it has trimmed the multiple to 43x from 46x earlier amid near-term volume uncertainty.

 

Additionally, MCX's active client codes in options rose 62 per cent Y-o-Y to 0.89 million, supported by rising retail participation and discount broker integration. “Despite this surge in participation, MCX still trails equity exchanges, which have 4-5 million active investors in equity options,” analysts said.

 

According to the analysts, Budget 2026 has further strengthened the case for commodities trading, as the government hiked the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) while refraining from increasing the Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT). The move, they said, makes commodities relatively cheaper to trade than equities.

 

“This deliberate policy stance signals regulatory support for the nascent commodities market, making it even more attractive for traders. The cost of trading commodities futures/options is now 35/38 per cent lower than equities,” analysts added.    ============================== 

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