Motilal Oswal sector of the week: IT services; check stock picks, targets

Growth trends across the India IT sector continue to diverge. While Tier-I companies are likely to post flat to marginal constant currency revenue movement, mid-tier firms are expected to outperform.

The Indian IT services sector is showing early signs of stability in Q1FY26, even as global macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff-related risks continue to weigh on sentiment. While the pace of large deal signings remained subdued, the quarter avoided widespread project deferrals or ramp-downs, pointing to operational resilience.

 

Growth trends across the sector continue to diverge. While Tier-I companies are likely to post flat to marginal constant currency (cc) revenue movement, mid-tier firms are expected to outperform, supported by healthy deal ramp-ups, strong vertical traction, and recent acquisitions. Reported INR revenue will also benefit from 100–200 basis points of cross-currency gains, thanks to the weak US dollar.

 

 

The pace of deal signings in Q2FY26 and beyond remains a key monitorable. Although discretionary IT budgets remain under pressure, client interest in next-generation, AI-led productivity programs is steadily gaining ground. As these initiatives transition from pilots to scaled execution, they could drive deal momentum in the coming quarters.

 

Operating margins are expected to remain range-bound. Supply-side pressures have largely normalised, but factors such as visa costs, rupee appreciation, and modest revenue growth are likely to cap margin expansion. Nevertheless, some firms could benefit from better utilisation, pyramid optimisation, and the absence of earlier one-offs.

 

The near-term setup is supported by seasonal strength in the first half, a stable demand environment in key verticals, and improving deal conversion for select players. While valuations are not materially discounted, they leave room for positive re-rating in case of earnings surprises.

 

Key variables to track include visibility on large transformation programs, client commentary around tech budgets, deal pipeline progression, and execution in emerging tech areas like GenAI, automation, and cloud services. While a broad-based acceleration is yet to materialise, the sector appears to be transitioning toward a more stable footing. With early signs of demand revival and a favourable base in the second half, the groundwork is being laid for a more constructive FY26.  Track Stock Market LIVE Updates

HCL Tech – Target Price: ₹2,000

HCLT is well-positioned for FY26, supported by strong deal wins (USD 3 billion, +43 per cent QoQ) and revenue growth guidance of 2–5 per cent YoY CC, above peers. Margins held steady at 18 per cent, with management maintaining its FY26 target of 18–19 per cent. ER&D and Services continue to outperform, and early signs of recovery are visible in the manufacturing vertical. Deal momentum is underpinned by GenAI-led cost optimisation, and attrition has eased with ongoing fresher hiring. While discretionary spending remains muted, HCLT’s diversified portfolio, strong pipeline, and muted supply-side pressures provide margin stability. We expect USD revenue and INR PAT to grow at a CAGR of 5.9 per cent and 8.2 per cent, respectively, over FY25–27E.

Coforge – Target price: ₹2,400            

We reiterate our 'Buy' on Coforge, supported by a robust executable order book of USD 1.5 billion (+47 per cent YoY) and strong traction in BFSI and transportation, both growing over 20 per cent YoY in FY25. The company is on track to achieve its USD 2 billion revenue target by FY27, aided by organic growth, Cigniti-led cross-sell, and the landmark USD 1.6 billion Sabre deal. Cross-currency gains and broad-based client momentum across BFSI and Insurance (48.5 per cent of revenue) further enhance visibility. Margins are set to expand, with one-offs behind and tailwinds from delivery mix and lower ESOP costs; management is targeting an 18 per cent Ebitda margin by FY27. Margin improvement is already visible, with Ebit margin rising to 14 per cent in Q1FY26.