Nomura lifts Lupin target price on US momentum, India growth recovery

Lupin share price today: Japan-based brokerage Nomura has raised its target price on pharmaceutical company Lupin to ₹2,580 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating, implying an upside potential of around 30 per cent. 

 

However, on the bourses, Lupin shares were trading 0.70 per cent lower at ₹1,973.50 per share at 9:30 AM. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.23 per cent lower at 83,346.45 levels.

 

The brokerage’s upbeat stance stems from robust near-term momentum in the US business, an expected recovery in India growth, and continued execution in complex generics and specialty segments.

 

“We believe the valuation is attractive as we expect: 1) a growth recovery in India and other markets; and 2) strong earnings growth beyond FY28F,” said Saion Mukherjee and Kushal Chovatia of Nomura in a note dated November 10, 2025.

 

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According to Nomura, Lupin’s share price has been largely range-bound since August 2024, rising only about 2 per cent, in line with the broader market. However, over the same period, consensus earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been upgraded by 39 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively. Nomura’s own projections remain more optimistic – 23 per cent and 9 per cent ahead of Street estimates for FY26 and FY27 – underscoring confidence in Lupin’s earnings visibility.  ALSO READ | Tata Motors demerger: What lies ahead for PV and CV businesses post split 

The brokerage noted that investor sentiment toward Lupin remains cautious, primarily due to perceived volatility in product-specific opportunities in the US generics space. Nevertheless, Nomura believes these concerns are overdone, given the company’s strong track record of execution and early-mover advantage in complex products. Lupin has secured approvals ahead of peers in critical categories such as inhalers and injectables, and could soon obtain USFDA clearance for a biosimilar, marking an important milestone in its pipeline.

 

Nomura stressed upon Lupin’s strategic focus on innovation, with 66 per cent of its R&D spend directed toward complex generics. The company also holds around 20 sole first-to-file (FTF) opportunities in the US, covering a potential market size of nearly USD 7 billion. Its history of successfully monetising such FTF exclusivities adds further confidence to the earnings outlook.

 

Beyond the US, Nomura expects domestic growth to accelerate, driven by market share gains in insulin and the upcoming launch of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA)—a promising diabetes segment. The brokerage also foresees strong recovery across emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico, where past regulatory hurdles have now been resolved. In Europe, Lupin’s growth trajectory will be supported by its acquisition of VISUfarma, which Nomura views positively due to its synergy potential.  ALSO READ | Tata Steel Q2: Here's what top brokerages expect from steel major 

Factoring in these developments, Nomura has raised its FY26-27 Ebitda estimates by 8-9 per cent, accounting for stronger US performance and the VISUfarma acquisition. While its FY27 earnings forecast is slightly trimmed due to lower other income and higher depreciation, analysts believe Lupin’s valuation remains compelling at 20.5x FY28 EPS of ₹97.1.

 

Hence, Nomura values Lupin at 28x Dec-2027 EPS of ₹92.3, rolling forward its model to December 2026 and arriving at a new target price of ₹2,580. It also pegs the fair value range between ₹2,400-₹2,800, citing medium- to long-term upside from biosimilars and specialty products not yet reflected in consensus estimates.