Nuvama sees mixed June auto sales; two-wheelers, tractors to outperform

June 2025 auto sales: Analysts at Nuvama cite rural demand and the ongoing marriage season as key drivers supporting two-wheeler and tractor volumes.

Nuvama June auto sales expectations: Domestic brokerage firm Nuvama Institutional Equities (Nuvama) analysts expect June 2025 wholesale auto sales to be a mixed bag, with strength in two-wheelers (2Ws) and tractors offset by weakness in commercial and passenger vehicles.

 

Analysts at Nuvama cite rural demand and the ongoing marriage season as key drivers supporting two-wheeler and tractor volumes, while subdued consumer sentiment and conversion delays are likely to weigh on PV and CV sales.

 

Thus, the brokerage is betting on automobile players like Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), TVS Motor, Motherson Wiring, Uno Minda and Apollo Tyres.

 

“We remain constructive on the automotive sector and estimate tractors, SUVs and 2Ws shall clock high single-digit growth over FY25– 27E, outpacing CVs. Our top picks are Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor, Motherson Wiring, Uno Minda and Apollo Tyres,” said Raghunandhan NL, Manav Shah, Rahul Kumar of Nuvama, in a note.

 

 

Here’s the segment-wise expectations ahead of June auto sales data:

 

Two-wheelers

 

The brokerage projects domestic two-wheeler volumes to grow around 7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), led by positive rural sentiment and seasonal tailwinds. Export volumes are also expected to expand at a double-digit pace, driven by robust demand in Latin America and Africa. 

 

Within the segment, TVS Motor is expected to outperform with a 23 per cent Y-o-Y rise in volumes to 410,000 units. Eicher Motors, through its Royal Enfield brand, is seen posting 15 per cent growth to 84,000 units, while Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto are each expected to report 9 per cent growth, reaching 550,000 units and 390,000 units, respectively.

 

Tractors

 

Tractor volumes are expected to rise around 7 per cent in the domestic market, supported by a favourable base and improving farm sentiment. 

 

“On the brighter side, farmer sentiment is positive in anticipation of a good monsoon,” the brokerage said.

 

Mahindra & Mahindra’s farm division is projected to report a 7 per cent increase in volumes to 50,800 units, while Escorts, including Kubota, is forecast to grow 2 per cent Y-o-Y to 11,500 units.

 

Passenger vehicles (PVs)

 

According to analysts, the passenger vehicles segment is likely to contract around 5 per cent Y-o-Y in June. 

 

The brokerage attributes the decline to muted customer enquiries and slower conversions at dealerships, even as discounting remains elevated across several OEMs. 

 

M&M is expected to buck the trend with 12 per cent growth in overall auto volumes, including PVs, CVs, and three-wheelers, at 78,000 units. 

 

In contrast, Hyundai is likely to report a 6 per cent decline to 61,000 units, while Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors-PV are each forecast to dip 5 per cent to 171,000 units and 41,600 units, respectively.

 

Commercial vehicles (CVs)

 

Commercial vehicle sales are projected to decline by around 4 per cent Y-o-Y. Although e-way bill generation has improved, indicating better freight availability, analysts highlight selective financing, pre-buying in May ahead of mandatory AC norms, and adequate fleet utilisation as factors dampening volumes.  Eicher’s VECV is seen growing modestly by 2 per cent to 7,600 units. Ashok Leyland’s volumes are expected to remain flat at 14,900 units, while Tata Motors-CV may decline 2 per cent to 31,400 units.