Paytm Q3 preview: Revenue may rise 6% QoQ; opex control to aid profit

Paytm Q3 results preview: Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Paytm's net profit to average ₹209.5 crore, compared with a net loss of ₹2,076 crore a year ago

Paytm Q3 results preview: One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, is scheduled to release its December quarter (Q3FY26) results on Thursday, January 29, 2026.

 

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard estimate Paytm's net profit to average ₹209.5 crore, compared with a net loss of ₹2,076 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, the profit after tax (PAT) is expected to fall 1 per cent from ₹212.4 crore in Q2FY26. Profitability is anticipated to be maintained amid controlled opex.

 

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to rise 19 per cent in Q3FY26, on average, to ₹2,180.8 crore as compared to ₹1,828 crore a year ago. Sequentially, the revenue is poised to rise 6 per cent from ₹2,060.8 crore in Q2FY26.

 

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How will Paytm perform in Q3FY26?

 

YES Securities: Analysts expect 6 per cent Q-o-Q growth in Payments Services revenue and 7.5 per cent Q-o-Q growth in Financial Services and Others, and arrive at an overall growth in revenue from operations of 6 per cent Q-o-Q to ₹2,187 crore.

 

Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of Payments Revenue is forecasted at 55 per cent, a metric that was 54.9 per cent in Q2FY26.

 

Total Expenses (excl PPC and ESOP Expense) is expected to grow 5.6 per cent Q-o-Q, compared with a growth of 2 per cent in Q2FY26, resulting in an Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) margin (excl Other Income and before ESOP cost) of 8.6 per cent, a expansion of 176 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q.

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services: The brokerage expects steady revenue growth in Q3. Consolidated revenue in Q3FY26 is expected at ₹2,130 crore, as compared to ₹2,060 crore in Q2FY26 and ₹1,830 crore in Q3FY25.

 

Contribution margin (CM) is expected to remain steady at 60 per cent and merchant addition is anticipated to remain healthy.

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities: The brokerage expects the payments business to grow at a high single digit sequentially due to sustained consumption and the festive season, though growth will be relatively slower than Q2. Under the financial services business, while loan disbursal growth is likely to improve due to the festive season, revenue growth will be lower due to the reduction of default loss guarantee (DLG) loans in the mix.

 

CM is anticipated to dip sequentially by 150 bps due to the phasing out of DLG revenue. However, a flat fixed cost would ensure strong operating leverage, leading to Ebitda margin expansion of 80 bps.

 

Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.