Power sector: Antique picks NTPC, Adani Power, ACME Solar; here's why

Antique said that it prefers companies with exposure to firm power generation and transmission-linked opportunities. It has maintained a 'Buy' rating on NTPC, Adani Power, and ACME Solar.

Antique Stock Broking has said that India's power sector is no longer constrained by capacity but short on firm deliverability. It said that despite installed capacity crossing 537 GW and near-zero FY26 deficits, more than 40 GW of awarded renewable energy projects remain unsigned.

 

Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) May data showed that 57 of 86 under-construction inter-state transmission system (ISTS) are running behind schedule by around 10 months, mostly in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

 

"The scarce asset is no longer megawatts but firm, time-specific grid access," Antique said.

 

The report noted that the GNA Fourth Amendment draft released on June 16 by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), the apex body responsible for regulating the electricity sector, highlighted a 128GW connectivity backlog. Around 33 GW of projects have received in-principle grants but remain stranded in the absence of supporting transmission infrastructure.

 

 

As a result of the bottlenecks, several developers are deferring capex and shifting aggressively towards firm power capacity. The day-evening merchant spreads continue to reflect the scarcity of evening capable evacuation infrastructure.

 

"Developers are responding rationally by deferring commissioning, staggering capex, and redirecting bids toward firm structures that align with available evacuation," the brokerage said.

 

With grid access emerging as the scarce asset amid transmission delays and a 128 GW connectivity logjam, Antique said that it prefers companies that are positioned to benefit from this structural shift. 

 

Against this backdrop, Antique said that it prefers companies with exposure to firm power generation and transmission-linked opportunities. It said that such companies are well placed to benefit from the structural shift.

 

The brokerage said NTPC is its preferred pick from the sector at current valuations, with limited downside risk. It said that the recent slide in NTPC stock is sentiment-driven (reflecting management transition concerns) and sector-wide fund raises/rotation, not fundamentals. It has retained a 'Buy' rating on the PSU for a target price of ₹423. The target implies an upside of 19 per cent from the previous close of ₹356.10 on NSE.

 

For long-term growth, the brokerage said that it likes Adani Power and ACME Solar. The brokerage has maintained a 'Buy' rating on both stocks, with target prices of ₹242 and ₹363, respectively.  =====================================================

 

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