Sensex hits new high, surged over 14% post breakout in past; check outlook

The BSE Sensex has scaled a new life-time high for the ninth straight calendar year, and registered an average gain of nearly 15 per cent after hitting a new high in the past, shows data.

The BSE Sensex hit a new life-time high at 86,026 in intra-day trade on Thursday amid optimism over India's growth story, and hopes of a likely rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India and the US Federal Reserve in December.  This is the first new all-time high in the calendar year 2025. The Sensex had last registered its summit at 85,978 on September 27, 2024. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty 50 index too registered a fresh record high 26,307 in trades today.    The market momentum has been strong in the current quarter thus far, with the Sensex gaining 2.5 per cent in November, and 7.2 per cent thus far in the December quarter. The BSE benchmark index has rallied over 20.4 per cent or 14,601 points from the calendar year low of 71,425 to the new high today.  In the process, the Sensex has registered a record high for the ninth straight calendar year. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) historical data shows that the Sensex has been registering a yearly higher summit since 2017.  An analysis of the past data reveals that the Sensex has delivered over 14 per cent rally after registering a new high in 6 out of the last 8 years. On an average the Sensex has surged 14.8 per cent in the past 8 years when compared to the previous year's high. 

 

 

  The highest was a 30 per cent rally in the calendar year 2021, while the least was a 2.1 per cent jump in the following year.  With just one month remaining for the year to end, what to expect now? Here's what the chart says. 

Sensex

Current Level: 85,900  Support: 84,250; 81,900  Resistance: 86,127; 87,500; 88,100     The Sensex has surged to a fresh high after 14 months, signaling a strong continuation of the broader uptrend that has been developing since the consolidation phase earlier this year. The index has broken above its previous resistance zone of 86,050 with convincing volume, indicating renewed institutional participation and improved risk appetite, said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited  From a technical standpoint, the breakout above 86,000 - 86,050 indicates that the Sensex is firmly in bullish territory, with momentum oscillators such as RSI holding in positive zones, Amruta Shinde added.  On the upside, the immediate resistance for the Sensex is seen near 86,150 – 86,250. A sustained close above this region may open the gateway toward 87,000 and eventually 87,500, which will act as a major psychological milestone, said the analyst.  According to the yearly Fibonacci chart, the BSE Sensex is now quoting close to its yearly R2 - meaning Resistance 2 - which stands at 86,127. Breakout above the same shall open the doors for a likely up move towards 88,100 levels.  Further Fibonacci extension chart indicates likely upside for the Sensex around 90,600 and 94,100 levels, as per the yearly chart.  The overall bias for the BSE benchmark index is likely to remain upbeat as long as the index holds above 81,900 levels, with near support visible at 84,250.