Sensex likely to swing in 2,000-pt range this week; Nifty eyes 24,800

In the week ahead, Sensex is likely to swing between 78,200 to 80,230 range. Nifty may test 23,400 on the downside, and can potentially rally to 24,800 on the upside; suggests technical charts.

Last week, amid a 7-day rally in the equity markets, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex clocked a new calendar year high at 80,255; but eventually settled with a gain of 0.8 per cent or 660 points at 79,213.  Meanwhile, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 index zoomed past its 200-Daily Moving Average, and hit a high at 24,365, before eventually settling at 24,039 - a shade below the key long-term moving average - up 0.8 per cent or 187 points for the week.  While the rally in the market was supported by renewed buying interest by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and hopes of healthy corporate earnings for the quarter ended March 2024. However, the benchmark indices pared gains in the latter half of the week amid fears of worsening India-Pakistan ties following a terrorist attack on tourists in Kashmir.  In the week ahead, the market will continue to seek cues from global counterparts amid signs that the US President Donald Trump may soften his stance of tariffs; individual stocks are likely to see sharp swings owing to the results season.  Equity benchmark indices were up for the last two week, can the Sensex and Nifty extend the rally to the third week or will they falter? Here's a technical outlook on the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty for the week ahead.  CATCH STOCK MARKET LATEST UPDATES TODAY LIVE 

BSE Sensex

  Last Close: 79,213  Upside Potential: 3.5%  Downside Risk: 2.3%  Support: 78,825; 78,580; 78,390; 78,200  Resistance: 79,600; 79,840; 80,035; 80,230  The high of 80,255 last week is precisely at the quarterly R1 (resistance 1); hence the index will need to cross this resistance in order to open the doors for further gains. On the upside, the Sensex can potentially rally towards 82,000-mark, with interim resistance expected around 81,135 levels. The short-term bias for the Sensex is likely to remain positive as long as the BSE benchmark stays above 77,400 levels.  In the week ahead, the BSE Sensex may swing in the range of 78,200 - 80,230; with interim support anticipated around 78,825, 78,580 and 78,390. Resistance on the upside is placed at 79,600, 79,840 and 80,035 levels. 

NSE Nifty

  Last Close: 24,039  Upside Potential: 9.8%  Downside Risk: 4.7%  Support: 23,900; 23,400  Resistance: 24,169; 24,365  The NSE Nifty stay above the 200-DMA was limited to four trading sessions, before the index finally slipped below the same on Friday. Technically, the Nifty has made higher high on the daily chart by crossing the 200-DMA, and now needs to make a higher low to confirm a potential change in trend.  Having said that, the markets are likely to be fairly volatile as India VIX is seen rising, and key momentum oscillators on the daily and weekly chart paint a mixed outlook for the Nifty. Key momentum oscillators on the daily scale are showing signs of some consolidation in the near-term; while the same seem to be favourably placed on the weekly scale.  For now, near support for the Nifty exists at 23,900 levels, below which the index can potentially drop to 23,400  levels wherein stands the 100-DMA. Going ahead, the bias for the Nifty is expected to remain favourable as long as the NSE benchmark holds above 22,900 - 23,200 support zone.  On the upside, the Nifty needs to register a weekly close above 24,169 in order to confirm a breakout on the weekly chart. Unless this is not achieved, the market shall run the risk of the downtrend to resume. A breakout can potentially open the doors for an extended rally towards 26,400 levels. Hurdles on the upside for the week ahead are placed at 24,365 and 24,800 levels.