Tata Steel, SAIL: Outlook for Indian steel stocks on Trump tariff woes

Technical chart shows that Nifty Metal has a strong support base around the 8,000-mark; In case, the index violates the same it can slide another 15 per cent from present levels.

Shares of Indian metal companies, particularly steel stocks, took a sharp hit in trades on Monday after the US President Donald Trump threatened a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium imports, as early as Monday.  Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Trump said that the levied tariffs would cover “everybody”, without specifying when the duties would come into effect. Trump also said he would announce more retaliatory tariffs this week.  Concerns around possible trade war escalated as US President Donald Trump warned of possible tariff imposition of 25% on steel and aluminium imports. In retaliatory move, German Chancellor also warned of additional tariffs on US goods. Furthermore, China’s tariff imposition will also come in to place this week, said Kranthi Bathini, Director - Equity strategy at WealthMills Securities.  These tariff wars are expected to have inflationary impact and could possibly limit the easing cycle given the strong US payrolls report, the analyst said.  On the bourses, the Nifty Metal index tumbled nearly 3 per cent, and was the top loser on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) today. Among individual stocks, Vedanta, SAIL, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel were the major losers. READ MORE  Global markets have exhibited volatility in recent days, after the US President started imposing tariffs since the start of this month. Earlier in February, the Trump threatened up to 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS nations, which includes India, if these countries continued de-dollarisation efforts.  Against this backdrop, here's a technical outlook on key steel stocks in Indian markets.  Nifty Metal  Current Price: 8,340  Downside Risk: 4.7%  Worst Case Scenario: 15.2% fall  Support: 8,380; 8,040; 7,950  Resistance: 8,700  In the last three weeks, the Nifty Metal index twice tested support around its super trend line on the daily scale and bounced back. The Metal index, once again, could head towards the key support level, which now stands at 8,040; if trades consistently below 8,380 - its 20- DMA (Daily Moving Average). CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  The weekly chart also shows presence of strong support around 7,950 - wherein stands the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) - key moving average the index has held since May 26, 2023. Long-term chart shows that in case, the support zone at 7,950 - 8,040 is violated, the index could weaken and slide all the way towards 7,070 levels - this implies a downside risk of 15.2 per cent from present levels.    Interim support for the Metal index can be expected around 7,750 and 7,550 levels. On the upside, the index needs to break and trade consistently above 8,700 levels, in order to revive the sentiment at the counter.  Tata Steel  Current Price: Rs 133.40  Downside Risk: 6.5%  Support: Rs 131.20; Rs 130.80; Rs 127.70  Resistance: Rs 136.80  On Friday, Tata Steel stock had closed above its 50-DMA for the first time since October 21, 2024. However, with today's fall, the stock has once again plunged below the 50-DMA, which stands at Rs 136.80, and is seen headed towards the 20-DMA at Rs 131.20. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  The daily chart shows that the stock has made higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale in recent days. As such, the stock may attempt to seek support above Rs 124.70 in the current dip. Support for Tata Steel can be anticipated around Rs 130.80 and Rs 127.70 levels.  Steel Authority of India (SAIL)  Current Price: Rs 105.80  Downside Risk: 11.2%  Support: Rs 102.20  Resistance: Rs 111.70  SAIL stock seems to have snapped back after testing resistance at the super trend line on the daily scale. The stock since mid-January has repeatedly tested this hurdle, which stands at Rs 111.70, and failed to conquer it. The stock may once again slip back towards the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart at Rs 102.20, which also coincides with the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average). In case, this support is broken the stock can fall to Rs 94. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART    Vedanta  Current Price: Rs 436  Downside Risk: 17.4%  Support: Rs 435; Rs 418; Rs 410  Resistance: Rs 457  Vedanta stock has retraced after testing resistance around its 100-DMA at Rs 457. The stock is now seen testing support at its 100-DMA at Rs 435; below which the key support stands at Rs 418 and Rs 410 levels. Break and sustained trade below the same, shall open the doors for a steeper slide towards Rs 360 levels, shows the long-term chart. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  Jindal Steel  Current Price: Rs 830  Downside Risk: 13.9%  Support: Rs 797  Resistance: Rs 856; Rs 881  Jindal Steel stock has rallied nearly 15 per cent from its January low of Rs 723. The stock at present is seen testing resistance near its 20-DMA at Rs 856; above which the key hurdle stands at Rs 881. On the downside, the 100-WMA at Rs 797 shall act as a key support for the stock. In case, the stock violates this support repeatedly it can slip back to Rs 715 levels. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART  JSW Steel  Current Price: Rs 955  Downside Risk: 5.8%  Support: Rs 940; Rs 930  Resistance: Rs 980  On Friday, JSW Steel crossed its 200-DMA for the first-time since December 17, 2024. At present, the stock is seen trading marginally below the long-term moving average, which stands at Rs 960; and also coincides with the 20-WMA. As long as the stock trades below the same, it can possibly fall back to Rs 900-mark, with interim support likely around Rs 940 and Rs 930 levels. On the upside, the stock may face resistance around Rs 980. CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART