At around 1.8 million employees, scheduled commercial banks account for one of the largest shares of jobs in India’s organised sector, and some of them are reporting stagnation or even a decline in their total employment numbers. A recent report in this newspaper points out that the country’s largest private-sector bank, HDFC Bank, reported a decline in the number of employees for the first time in nine years. At the end of March 2026, HDFC Bank’s total headcount was reported to be 211,000, lower by 1.6 per cent over the previous year. The reason for this decline appears to be the bank’s increased use of technology and AI.
However, a substantially different picture emerges if you break down the staff strength of HDFC Bank under supervisory and non-supervisory categories. The number of non-supervisory staff has declined by close to 5 per cent at the end of March 2026. But the strength of supervisory staff has increased by 11 per cent. Clearly, the impact of technology and AI is seen more among non-supervisory staff, where the actual decline in the headcount for HDFC Bank has been over 8,000 employees in one year. In contrast, the supervisory staff strength has gone up by over 4,800 employees.
How has the country’s largest public sector bank, State Bank of India or SBI, fared in this area? Not very differently. Of course, its total headcount increased by 3.8 per cent to 245,000 at the end of March 2026. But the increase was largely driven by growth in the staff strength of officers (2.2 per cent) and associates (8.8 per cent). The strength of its subordinate and other staff fell by 7 per cent. In other words, the country’s largest bank has also seen a decline in its non-supervisory staff strength.
Most likely, data for other banks’ hiring numbers will also show a similar trend. Such a human resources management strategy is understandable from the banks’ perspective. It is necessary for the banks to focus on achieving productivity gains through technology adoption and to stay competitive and profitable. Similar considerations will be at play for many other sectors where technology and AI applications will reduce the need and scope for non-supervisory functions in workplaces.
Therefore, the implications of such a scenario for a country that needs to provide employment to its vast population should not be ignored. Banks and other organised-sector employers should — and will — embrace technology. But the government’s policies on skilling and reskilling must rise to the occasion. What are these implications and imperatives?
India’s policymakers and experts have rightly argued that the oversized dependence on the agriculture sector for creating and sustaining jobs in the country must be reduced. Over 46 per cent of Indians depend on agriculture for their livelihood. This share should be brought down to improve the productivity of India’s agriculture. But this shift of people away from agriculture is possible only if the skilling programmes are geared towards training people for jobs in the manufacturing sector. The goal should be to ensure that a section of Indians working in farms is able to become gainfully employed in small and medium enterprises.
But achieving this shift is easier said than done. With the rapid rise in the use of technology and AI, employment opportunities will be fewer in different sectors of the economy, and this shortage will be seen more in low-end jobs. As the banking sector has already shown, job opportunities may rise at the higher end, but not at the non-supervisory level. In other words, the shift of farm-sector workers to low-end manufacturing or service-sector jobs will be challenging. Failing to meet this challenge will have social implications as well. Many young people without training will see their job opportunities decline, and their failure to secure gainful employment can be a cause for social unrest, economic distress and a political challenge for the ruling party.
On the other hand, this transition can become less challenging if state- or local government-level skilling programmes are geared towards providing necessary training to employees in low-skilled jobs in technologies that will make them useful in the new world that is emerging. Job opportunities for unskilled workers will be fewer than those for people who are adequately trained in AI and other relevant technologies. Even current manufacturing or service-sector jobs, where till now ordinary, non-skilled workers could be hired, will in the coming days require employees who are technically trained and skilled in AI.
The message from the disaggregated manpower numbers of India’s top banks, therefore, is clear. The government must strengthen its ministry of skill development and entrepreneurship, which was set up and upgraded as an independent ministry in 2014. It is responsible for the coordination of all skill development efforts across the country. It is expected to remove the growing disconnect between demand and supply of skilled manpower by building the vocational and technical training framework, upgrading skills, building new skills, and promoting innovating thinking, not only for existing jobs, but also for jobs that are likely to be created.
The ministry’s vision is a “Skilled India”. There is a clear need for this ministry to become more visible with policy actions and programmes for training, skilling and reskilling the vast numbers of young people looking for gainful employment. The rapid use of technology and AI has made the tasks set out for the Union ministry even more critical.
 "Job market, job layoff, corporate, leadership")