UK's 'Bregret' syndrome: Decade on, Brexit objectives prove unworkable

A decade after the Brexit vote, slower growth, higher trade costs and persistent immigration challenges have fuelled rising public regret over leaving the EU

The United Kingdom (UK) gets ready to witness a seventh occupant moving into 10 Downing Street in a decade, coinciding with the anniversary of the momentous 51.9:48.1 vote to leave the European Union (EU), its largest trading partner. Though the final separation from the EU took place on December 31, 2020, the country is no closer to the Brexit objectives. The move to “take back control” has resulted in an economy that experts say is 4 per cent to 8 per cent smaller than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. The promised billions for public services, including the National Health Service, as promised by the Leave campaigners, have not materialised.

 

After four Conservative Prime Ministers failed to cope with the fallout, the Labour Party was voted back to power after 14 years. But if Liz Truss’ unfunded tax cuts roiled the markets and forced her resignation after just 49 days in office, the Labour government’s decision to raise taxes to fund critical public services such as housing, health care and defence has not had the expected salutary impact. Instead, the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio stands at 95 per cent, and economic growth remains at a snail-paced 1 per cent. Though the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the United States’ attack on Iran have taken their toll on the economy, as they have done around the world, growing dissatisfaction with Labour’s economic management was evident in the party’s poor showing in local-government elections in May.

 

At the heart of the economic slowdown is the growing cost of doing business with the 27-nation EU, which accounts for 42 per cent of the UK’s exports. Although there are no tariffs on UK goods entering the EU, non-tariff barriers have multiplied the compliance costs British businesses have to face, including inspections, paperwork and sanitary standards. An HSBC Global Investment Research shows border check alone has cost the UK nearly $6 billion. Although the UK has signed a slew of trade agreements with other countries, including with India, these are yet to compensate for the sharp diminution of exports to the EU. At the same time, the pound is still to regain its pre-Brexit value, making imports expensive and pushing up prices for consumers. But the expected investment to balance the trade deficit has not materialised owing to trade barriers.  Only the UK’s services sector —accountancy, legal services and consultancy — has done well, with exports to the EU up 57 per cent over the last decade, though some economists argue that the nation could have done even better without Brexit.

 

Most ironic of all is the lack of appreciable change in immigration, the most viscerally nationalist issue on which the Leave lobby campaigned. Net migration by EU nationals has turned negative but net arrivals from non-EU countries surged. The numbers fell with tighter rules in 2025, but the government has been unable to contain illegal small-boat crossings of war-zone refugees, who are often housed at government cost, causing an explosion of popular anger. Recent polls suggest that “Bregret” has set in with 52 per cent of respondents voting to rejoin the EU. All of this suggests that it is unlikely that the next incumbent of Downing Street will fare much better than his six predecessors.