Apple MacBook Neo bucks weak Q2 PC market, but bigger test awaits: Analysts

Apple outpaced rivals in the global PC market in Q2 2026, driven by the MacBook Neo. IDC says demand in India remains strong despite the recent price increase

Apple has emerged as the lone bright spot in an otherwise weak second quarter in the calendar year for the global PC industry. According to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, worldwide PC shipments fell 4.9 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026 to 68.2 million units, marking the first decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth.

 

Apple, however, bucked the trend, shipping 6.7 million Macs, up 10.1 per cent year-on-year, and capturing 9.9 per cent of the global market. Omdia's Q2 tracker reached a similar conclusion using a slightly different methodology, estimating the overall market decline at 3.6 per cent while putting Apple's growth at 15.9 per cent on shipments of 7.3 million units. Every other vendor in the top five — Lenovo, HP, Dell and Asus — posted either a decline or flat growth on both trackers.

 

 

Earlier IDC had linked Apple's gains to the MacBook Neo, the company's entry-level Mac laptop, which began shipping in March. To understand what is driving demand in India, and what the recent price increase could mean, Business Standard spoke with Bharath Shenoy, principal analyst, Personal Computing Devices, IDC.

 

Shenoy said the Neo's momentum gathered pace after its mid-March launch and continued throughout the second quarter.

 

"The actual demand, the response was so good, they ramped up, and the overall Q2 shipment on the Neo itself was very huge," he said.

 

He added that demand across both consumer and commercial segments was benefiting from the Neo, although it remained the primary growth driver. Speaking about India, Shenoy said Apple "had a great quarter" and that IDC is "definitely expecting a pretty good share gain, primarily in consumer and a little bit also in the commercial segment."

MacBook Neo drove Apple's Q2 performance

MacBook Neo's trajectory through 2026 has unfolded in three phases. The first came in early June, when IDC forecast that global PC shipments would decline 11.3 per cent in 2026, with conditions worsening through the fourth quarter. Even then, IDC identified the Neo as a potential bright spot.

 

The pull-forward effect was visible in India as well. According to Q1 CY2026 data from IDC and Omdia, Apple shipped about 18,000 MacBook Neo units in India during the quarter, despite the laptop going on sale only in mid-March. Shipments began rising sharply from early April.

 

Navkendar Singh, associate vice-president at IDC, had told TechCrunch that demand for the Neo exceeded expectations in several countries, including India, where retailers struggled to secure enough inventory.

The second phase came with Apple's price increase. In June, the company raised prices of iPads, Macs, MacBooks and home products, citing memory and storage cost pressures that Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook described to The Wall Street Journal as "unavoidable". The MacBook Neo's price in India increased by Rs 10,000, from Rs 69,900 to Rs 79,900.

 

The third phase is reflected in the Q2 data, which shows the Neo translating into market share gains on both IDC and Omdia trackers, even as the broader market contracted. Omdia attributed Apple's growth to the Neo's launch alongside "healthy underlying demand".

 

Shenoy also pointed to Apple's supply chain as a structural advantage.

 

"For MacBooks, the logistic supply chain is way better organised and way better sorted compared to most of the other brands," he said, adding that competitors have faced processor and storage availability issues that Apple has largely avoided.

Why Apple's price increase may have limited impact

Shenoy argued that Apple's price increase should be viewed in the context of repeated increases by rival brands.

 

He said competing brands have raised prices every two to three months by around 10 to 15 per cent a time since late November, with further increases of 13 to 15 per cent expected in July.

 

"If you notice, Apple just had one round of price increase, around 15 to 20 per cent, whereas others have increased way more than what Apple has," Shenoy said. "So, to be honest, we don't see much impact on Apple sales."

 

Omdia's market tracking broadly supports this view, estimating that prices across comparable product categories have risen 20 to 40 per cent over the past year, reflecting repeated increases by Windows original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

Shenoy also said several Apple retail outlets in India continue to sell MacBook Neo units at the pre-increase price while clearing existing inventory.

 

"They are still giving it at the old price in their outlets, Apple stores, and so on," he said.

Combined with student discounts, he said, the Neo remains "a very attractive option right now".

 

His conclusion was straightforward:

 

"We don't see much impact for Apple, and we expect Apple to grow further in the coming quarters."

 

He also noted that the Neo is now priced on par with, or in some cases below, rival Intel Core i5 and AMD Ryzen 5 laptops, whose prices have risen because of the same memory cost pressures, while still offering the appeal of a MacBook.

India PC market tells a different story

In June, IDC forecast that the global PC market would decline 11.3 per cent in 2026. Shenoy said that outlook does not necessarily apply to India.

 

He attributed the difference to the pandemic-era PC adoption cycle. Developed markets largely returned to pre-pandemic demand levels after economies reopened, whereas India's lower PC penetration allowed demand to remain on a higher growth trajectory.

 

"The trend you see in the global market and the trend you see in the Indian market might differ," he said.

 

Shenoy added that IDC's Q2 India data were still being finalised at the time of the interview, but early indicators point to healthy market growth, with Apple among the gainers.

 

He also highlighted an important distinction between "sell-in" and "sell-out". IDC's shipment figures measure devices shipped by manufacturers to distributors and retailers, rather than actual consumer purchases. Higher sell-in does not necessarily translate into higher consumer demand, as it may reflect inventory build-up.

 

According to Shenoy, that is what is happening in the market now. Retailers are increasing inventories ahead of expected price increases by competing brands, boosting shipment numbers without necessarily indicating stronger end-user demand.

The real test comes next

Shenoy's assessment is more optimistic than IDC's earlier global outlook, which warned that the memory shortage differs from previous supply cycles and is unlikely to ease before 2028. It also contrasts with Omdia's findings that business customers are delaying PC refresh cycles as higher component costs feed through the market.

 

In its report, Ishan Dutt, research director at Omdia, said market signals are "now pointing to a period of delayed demand as the true impact of the supply crunch sinks in", with more than half of channel partners surveyed in June saying customers were postponing hardware refreshes until market conditions stabilise.

 

Both trends may play out simultaneously. The MacBook Neo's value proposition — an entry-level Mac priced close to, or even below, rival laptops — appears intact despite the price increase, helped by retailers continuing to sell pre-increase inventory.

 

However, memory cost pressures remain unresolved, and the buffer of lower-priced inventory will eventually run out. The next quarter is likely to provide a clearer indication of whether Apple's momentum in India can be sustained once the market fully absorbs the higher prices.