The revised method of GDP did not only change the base year, but also the way it is computed.
While several sectors returned to growth in Q3 , agriculture was all along different. GVA in last fiscal year at constant prices was 4.3 per cent.
However, the economy grew by a much higher rate of 3.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019-20
With services sector not yet fully functional, consumption spending - private and government - continues to trend lower. However, capital formation did turn around in the previous quarter
'Significant recovery in manufacturing and construction augurs well for the support these sectors are expected to provide to growth in FY22,' says Ministry of Finance
The GDP forecasts do indicate that we are on the right path and in the absence of any serious localized lockdowns can be expected to accelerate with time
Growth that bounced back from -23.9 per cent in the first quarter to -7.5 per cent now seems poised to return to the positive zone in the third quarter
The agency's earlier forecast for FY21 was 4.5 per cent. The revision was made due to a sharper-than-expected contraction of 6.1 per cent in the nominal GDP
Govt must focus on mobilising more revenues
With modest revenue effort, the burden of cutting the deficit will fall on a big expenditure contraction
The growth impact of PLI schemes could start showing up in FY22
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said vegetable prices are expected to remain soft in the near term as the central bank projected retail inflation rate to come down to 5.2 per cent in the current quarter
There has been less fudging with the revised estimates (RE) of 2020-21.
Though the first case of Covid was detected at the end of January last year, the impact on the economy began to be felt towards the end of March, when the first nationwide lockdown was announced
The rebound will follow an estimated 7.7 per cent contraction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the current financial year ending March 31
Economic Survey made a case for an optimal fiscal stance
The Survey emphasised that the year after the crisis will require sustained and calibrated measures to facilitate the process of economic recovery
Govt can approach the Budget 2021 with an aim to rebuild the economy to attain the long-term objective of sustained higher growth
In 2020, the world economy shrank by 4.3%, over two and half times more than during the global financial crisis of 2009The modest recovery of 4.7% expected in 2021 would barely offset the losses of 20
Successive Indian governments have tried to do what they can't: target economic growth and equitable distribution simultaneously