The central bank's reserves, despite being among the world's biggest, are facing tougher scrutiny from investors as the rupee hits record lows
The Falling Rupee Explained in Simple Terms
The rupee depreciated 35 paise to a record low of 95.63 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support with hopes for a deal with the country fading, triggering a surge in crude oil prices. Market sentiments remained dominated by fears that the 10-week-old conflict could further tighten global supply, particularly after Trump rejected Tehran's latest response to a US-backed peace proposal, calling it totally unacceptable. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.57 against the US dollar and then fell further to an all-time low of 95.63 against the greenback, down 35 paise from its previous close. On Monday, the rupee tanked 79 paise to settle at its record low of 95.28 against the US dollar. "Oil prices were largely steady in Asian trade on Tuesday after climbing nearly 3 per cent in the previous session, as US President Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was on life
The rupee weakened sharply as rising Middle East tensions lifted crude oil prices, strengthened the dollar and intensified pressure on India's external balances
The renewed pressure on Indian markets came after US President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran's response to a US proposal for peace talks to end the war
Subbarao said raising interest rates, the "ultimate" exchange rate defence, should be the last resort, as the markets could read it as a sign the conflict poses a bigger threat to India's economy
The rupee crashed 139 paise to 94.90 against the greenback in early trade on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to the US's peace proposal, following which crude oil prices surged rapidly. A strengthening US dollar and steep FPI outflows further pressured the local unit, according to forex traders. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 94.97 against the US dollar before inching up to 94.90, down a staggering 139 paise from its previous close. On Friday, the rupee pared its losses and ended with a sharp gain of 71 paise at 93.51 against the greenback. Iran has sent its response to the latest US ceasefire proposal via Pakistani mediators and wants negotiations to focus on permanently ending the war, Iran's state-run media said on Sunday. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the months-long war as "totally unacceptable" without sharing details even as a key Republican leader urged him to consider the "military option". "After US President
The rupee depreciated 45 paise to 94.67 against the US dollar in early trade on Friday, as Brent crude prices rose back to USD 101.00 per barrel after US and Iranian forces exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Forex traders said investor sentiments were affected after Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire as the US carried out retaliatory strikes with new attacks, which took place in the Strait of Hormuz and civilian areas, while President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was still in effect. Brent oil prices, which had fallen to USD 98 per barrel amid the US-Iran peace deal, edged higher to USD 101 per barrel as investors weighed the prospects for a Middle East peace deal. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.58 against the US dollar, then lost momentum and touched 94.67 against the American currency, registering a fall of 45 paise over its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee pared initial losses and settled the day on a positive note,
The rupee strengthened against the dollar for a second straight session as easing crude oil prices and optimism over US-Iran talks supported sentiment
The rupee depreciated 28 paise to 94.77 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as market sentiment took a dramatic turn after reports emerged that the US and Iran are discussing a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at reducing tensions and reopening negotiations. Forex traders said Brent oil prices, which had fallen to USD 98 on the US-Iran peace deal, edged slightly higher to USD 101 per barrel after investors weighed the prospects for a Middle East peace deal. Moreover, factors such as unabated foreign capital outflows amid rising geopolitical uncertainties further dented investor sentiment. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.77 against the US dollar, registering a fall of 28 paise over its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated 69 paise to close at 94.49 against the US dollar. "Markets are currently focused on the critical 48-hour window during which the US expects Tehran's formal response through Pakistani ...
The rupee strengthened sharply and government bond yields eased after crude oil prices fell on hopes of a possible easing in US-Iran tensions
The Indian Rupee is likely to trade broadly sideways at around Rs 95 per US dollar by end-2026, from its current level of Rs 95.20 per US dollar, with the Iran conflict expected to weigh on its value, BMI said on Wednesday. However, slowing profit repatriation and central bank currency intervention will limit the pace of rupee depreciation, the Fitch group company said in a report. The US-Iran conflict has exerted downward pressure on emerging market currencies, especially for large energy importers like India. The rupee depreciated 4 per cent during March-April 2026 and currently trades at Rs 95.20/USD. BMI said it expects India's GDP to grow 7.6 per cent and inflation to hit 3.4 per cent during the current fiscal year (April 2025-March 2026). As a result of the currency's weakness, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervened heavily in currency markets to stabilise the rupee. "Going forward, we expect the rupee to trade broadly sideways to end the year around Rs 95.00/USD. Our ...
The rupee depreciated 20 paise to 95.43 against US dollar in early trade on Tuesday as market sentiments remained fragile after renewed military exchanges between US and Iranian forces in the Gulf region. Forex traders said investor anxiety due to instability in the Gulf is causing massive capital flight into safe-haven assets, with the US dollar acting as the primary beneficiary. Moreover, Brent oil prices is hovering near USD 113 per barrel, maintaining pressure on oil-importing economies like India. At the interbank foreign exchange market the rupee opened at 95.30 then lost ground to touch 95.43 against the US dollar, in initial trade, registering a fall of 20 paise over its previous close. Rupee fell 39 paise to close at an all-time low of 95.23 against the US dollar on Monday. "With oil boiling rupee on Monday fell to a closing low of 95.0875 and this morning the opening was still lower as it becomes more and more vulnerable when dollar index rises due to safe-haven buying a
The war between the US, Israel and Iran - now in its third month - has weakened the Indian currency, adding to a near 5 per cent fall in 2025
The rupee depreciated 11 paise to 94.95 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as the ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to keep markets on edge. Forex traders said Brent oil is hovering near USD 108, maintaining pressure on oil-importing economies like India. Moreover, factors such as unabated foreign capital outflows amid rising geopolitical uncertainties dented investor sentiments further. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee touched 94.95 against the US dollar in initial trade, registering a fall of 11 paise over its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee had settled at 94.84 against the American currency. Stock exchanges and currency markets were closed on Friday on account of Maharashtra Day. "The ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to keep markets on edge. On one side, US President Donald Trump hinted that Tehran's peace proposal may not be enough, keeping uncertainty alive. That's one reason why Brent crude is hovering near USD 10
Rupee weakness amid global turmoil and capital outflows may limit RBI's policy stance, raising risks of rate hikes as inflation, currency pressure and external shocks reshape India's monetary outlook
Currency weakens amid crude oil surge and West Asia tensions; RBI forward book deficit and rising bond yields add to pressure on the rupee
India's policy response to rising oil prices and geopolitical risks remains cautious, prioritising macroeconomic stability over stimulus as inflation pressures and second-order effects begin to emerge
The reversal has prompted traders and analysts to suggest that fresh regulatory measures could be on the cards
Rupee hit a record low of 95.32 vs dollar on Thursday. Going ahead, analysts see further downside with 96-97 levels in focus as oil surge, FII outflows and hawkish US Fed weigh on outlook