Canada goes to the polls today: Who will be the next Prime Minister?

Around 28 million registered Canadians will cast their ballots across 343 districts as the country goes to the polls after Justin Trudeau resigned from the prime ministerial position last month

Canadians are preparing to vote in parliamentary elections on Monday, with the ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, seeking to secure a new mandate against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party.

 

Canadian elections come at a time of political transition, economic uncertainty, rising global tensions, strained trade relations with the United States, and growing domestic concerns over inflation, housing affordability, climate change, and healthcare reform.

 

The snap election follows the resignation of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in March, after which Carney was elected to lead the government by the Liberal Party. Following Carney’s appointment as Prime Minister, a snap federal election was called for April 28, 2025.

 

 

Had Justin Trudeau not resigned in March 2025, his term as Prime Minister would have continued until the next federal election, which was constitutionally required to be held no later than October 2025.

 

Who are the candidates?

Mark Carney, 60, assumed leadership of the Liberal Party earlier this year, succeeding Justin Trudeau. Though new to politics, Carney brings decades of experience from the world of central banking and global finance, having previously served as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. His supporters praise his expertise and international reputation, particularly at forums such as the World Economic Forum in Davos, while critics argue he represents out-of-touch elite. Carney is contesting a parliamentary seat in a middle-class constituency in Ottawa.

 

Pierre Poilievre, 45, leads the Conservative Party and is a familiar figure in Canadian politics. Entering Parliament at just 24 years old, he served as a cabinet minister under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Known for his combative political style and disciplined messaging, Poilievre has spent two decades honing his public image and agenda, appealing strongly to the party’s right wing.

 

Two other leaders, Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Yves-François Blanchet of the Bloc Québécois, are also campaigning to maintain their parties' representation in Parliament. However, the race to become Prime Minister is widely seen as a direct contest between Carney and Poilievre.

 

What do opinion polls indicate?

Final opinion polls suggest the Liberals hold a slight advantage, with support averaging 42 per cent compared to 39 per cent for the Conservatives, according to CBC’s poll tracker. Projections indicate the Liberals are likely to secure around 189 seats, with a 70 per cent chance of forming a majority government. A majority requires at least 172 seats in the 343-seat House of Commons.

 

The Conservatives face an uphill battle, with only an 11 per cent chance of winning the most seats. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois is expected to lose seats, and the New Democrats risk falling below the 12-seat threshold required for official party status in Parliament.

 

When will the results be declared?

Around 28 million Canadians are registered to cast their ballots across the country’s expanded 343 electoral districts, up from 338 in the last federal election in 2021. Polling stations will be open on Monday from 9 am to 9 pm local time.

 

Due to Canada’s spread across six time zones, initial results will start to emerge from Atlantic provinces once voting closes there, with final outcomes expected after polls shut in the Pacific regions.

 

Campaigning paused amid car ramming incident

The final day of campaigning was overshadowed by an incident in Vancouver, where a car rammed into a crowd at a Filipino cultural event, killing 11 people and injuring dozens more. The attack, carried out by a 30-year-old man known to police due to prior mental health concerns, prompted an outpouring of grief across the country.

 

Prime Minister Carney briefly paused his campaign to address the nation to speak to the families affected. “Last night, families lost a sister, a brother, a mother, a father, a son, or a daughter. Those families are living every family’s nightmare,” he said.

 

Pierre Poilievre, speaking alongside his wife at a church service in Mississauga, a key battleground near Toronto, condemned the attack as “a senseless act of violence” and expressed solidarity with the Filipino community, emphasising that “all Canadians are united in grief today.”