Galactic Nobel? International Space Station contender for Peace Prize

The International Space Station is among the names in focus ahead of the October 9 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, alongside political leaders and humanitarian groups

Not-so-outlandish, prognosticators say: The Nobel Peace Prize this year could go galactic, with an award to the International Space Station (ISS). But terrestrial contenders loom too, including United States (US) President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, emergency teams in Sudan, children’s advocates in Ukraine and two top international courts, experts say.

 

The annual guessing game about who will win the prize, often called the most prestigious award on the planet, is revving up ahead of the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s October 9 announcement of the winner in Oslo. Predicting the outcome is inherently speculative. Some surprising and controversial choices have appeared over the years. The committee received 287 candidates for this year’s prize, and just over a quarter of them are organisations.

 

 

Experts say the committee, in its process of awarding the prize, typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.

 

Haakon Gjerlow, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, is considered a top forecaster. He says the ISS — well, the organisation behind it — is a rare symbol of global cooperation in a quest towards the heavens at a time when multilateralism is crumbling and many countries have retreated into narrower national interests on Earth.

 

The institute’s annual watch list is one of the sources that most informs pundits and punters about the top contenders. Trump has made no secret of his desire to win the prize, and has been nominated again, but could be viewed as a controversial choice after the US, along with Israel, launched an ongoing war on Iran in February.

 

Canada’s Carney has made a mark internationally this year, in large part by standing up to Trump on issues like US tariffs. Gjerlow’s list this year also features Ukrainian children’s advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children; Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots relief network; and the Committee to Protect Journalists after the deadliest two years for reporters since record-keeping began nearly 45 years ago.

 

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC), jointly, also got a nod. The ICC has faced criticism and controversy among some, and respect from others, over its arrest warrants against leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

 

Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Peace Prize jointly with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, says she hopes for a continued trend towards awarding the prize to women. Only 20 of the prize’s 112 individual laureates have been women in its 125-year history. In the past 15 years, eight women have won the prize individually, compared with just six men.

 

Among the names of women circulating in prediction markets this year are Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.

 

Nobel week kicks off on Monday with the announcement of the medicine prize, followed by the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday. After Friday’s peace prize is awarded, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on October 12.