Pro-China candidate Mohamed Muizzu wins Maldives presidential election

Mohamed Muizzu has won the Maldives' presidential election following a second-round run-off against incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. The election was viewed as a barometer for the nascent democracy of the Indian Ocean archipelago, as well as its relations with China and traditional ally India.

Muizzu, 45, leads a party that previously welcomed a surge of Chinese loans and conducted a comprehensive crackdown on dissent when last in power.

Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih conceded defeat just before midnight after the Elections Commission of the Maldives announced that Muizzu had secured 54.06 per cent of the votes in the run-off election.

"Congratulations to president-elect Muizzu," Solih wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

"Thank you for the beautiful democratic example shown by the people in the elections," he added.

Solih, 61, will serve as caretaker president until his successor is officially sworn in on 17 November.

During the first round of voting on 8 September, Muizzu emerged as the unexpected frontrunner, receiving 46 per cent of the total votes cast. Despite a poor voter turnout and internal divisions within his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), Solih garnered 39 per cent.

Significance of Maldives Elections

The run-off was perceived as having substantial implications for the Maldives' foreign policy, notably affecting China and India's competition for influence in the strategically important country.

"Today's result is a reflection of the patriotism of our people. A call on all our neighbours and bilateral partners to fully respect our independence and sovereignty," Mohamed Shareef, a senior official from Muizzu's Progressive Party of the Maldives, was quoted by the Associated Press.

Muizzu, a former housing minister, was instrumental in the development programmes of a previous government, partially funded by China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Last year, he informed officials from the Chinese Communist Party that his party's return to power would "script a further chapter of strong ties between our two countries."

India-China Angle

Solih, first elected as president in 2018, was contending with allegations from Muizzu that he had allowed India undue influence in the Maldives. Solih retorted that the Indian military's presence was solely for constructing a dockyard under a bilateral agreement, and that his country's sovereignty was not compromised.

Muizzu pledged to remove Indian troops from the Maldives and rectify the country's trade relations, which he argued were significantly biased in favour of India.

Ahmed Shaheed, a former foreign minister of the Maldives, interpreted the election outcome as a commentary on the government's failure to meet economic and governance expectations, rather than concerns over Indian influence.

"I don't think India was at all on people's minds," Shaheed said.

Solih's position was weakened closer to the election when Mohamed Nasheed, a charismatic former president, split from the Maldivian Democratic Party and fielded his own candidate in the first round. He chose to remain neutral in the second round.

"Nasheed's departure took the motherboard away from the MDP," Shaheed observed.

Yameen, leader of the Progressive Party of the Maldives, had aligned the Maldives with China's BRI during his presidency from 2013 to 2018. The initiative aims to construct railroads, ports, and highways to enhance trade and extend China's influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.