2025 to end with double-digit growth in electric two-wheeler registrations

For Bajaj the skew of sales in its home turf Maharashtra for e2wheelers is reflected in the fact that it accounts for a substantial 32 per cent of its total registrations in CY 2025

India’s electric two-wheeler (e2W) registrations are projected to end calendar year 2025 (CY25) with a growth of 11.5 per cent to hit 1.31 million vehicles despite the government reducing their tax advantage by slashing goods and services tax (GST) on internal combustion engine (ICE) models by 10 per cent, one big player Ola Electric seeing its sales fall by more than half, and the financial subsidy on each e2W being slashed from ₹10,000 to ₹5,000 from April.

 

This electric vehicle (EV) growth is in stark contrast to the fact that total two-wheeler market (ICE plus electric) grew by just over 1 per cent in CY25, according to data up to December 21 analysed from VAHAN. For the remaining days of December, the average sales per day of the month has been added till 31st.

 

Based on this assumption, EV penetration of e2Ws will be up by 0.6 per cent in CY25 over last year, and will end the year hitting 6.8 per cent penetration. The increase in penetration has been led by a few states like Kerala (with penetration now of 15.4 per cent), Goa (14.4 per cent), Karnataka (13.3 per cent), Maharashtra (10.2 per cent), and Orissa (10 per cent). In the remaining 19 states, penetration still remains well below 10 per cent.

 

As far as performance of companies go, Ola Electric was the only player in the top four which saw its registration share in e2Ws fall sharply by more than half from 35.5 per cent in CY24 to 15.4 per cent in 2025. In volume terms, its registrations, based on the analysis, dropped from 4.07 lakh in CY24 to an expected 1. 97 lakh in CY25. In contrast, its rival Ather Energy was able to achieve the highest incremental increase in its share among the top four players, going up by 4.7 per cent to hit 15.7 per cent in CY25 over CY24.

 

For Bajaj, the skew of sales in its home turf Maharashtra for e2Ws is reflected in the fact that it accounted for a substantial 32 per cent of its total registrations in CY25, down, of course, from last year. For TVS too, its top state Maharashtra accounted for nearly 15 per cent of its total registrations this year. However, both the companies were able to push their overall market share this year.

 

Interestingly, Bengaluru-based Ather Energy, which was perceived as a company with strong presence in South India, has clearly broken that myth in CY25 by spreading aggressively in the West and North India. The company catapulted from number four in Gujarat in CY24 to the number two spot as it nearly doubled its market share in the state to 22.3 per cent. Not only that, it ousted Ola to become the number two player in Goa with a 27.6 per cent share.

 

In the North, Ather more than doubled its market share to become the largest e2W player in Jammu and Kashmir. That apart, it has nearly doubled its share in Rajasthan, tripled it in Chandigarh, and increased the same in UP in CY25.

 

However, for Ola, Karnataka still held sway, accounting for 23 per cent of its registrations this year, though it fell from 28 per cent last year.

 

Ola had its worst year, with its registration market share falling across all states, and in some states the fall has been pretty sharp. For instance in Delhi, the company used to lord over the market with a 42.1 share last year, but is now down to sub-10 per cent. It has seen sharp drops in UP (from 46 per cent in CY24 to 21 per cent in CY25) as well as in its strong markets of Andhra Pradesh (42 per cent to 14.2 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (30.3 per cent to 14.4 per cent).

 

Despite these headwinds, Ola still retains the top slot in West Bengal, Bihar, Haryana, and Uttarakhand, and controls an over 20 per cent share in seven states. In 2024, it had more share than what it has now in every state across the country. Many critics say Ola will face serious challenges in CY26.

 

Hero MotoCorp has clearly been the other surprise – its e2W Vida, which did not have any state where it had a 10 per cent share or more in CY24, has now crossed that milestone in seven states. For instance, in West Bengal, it already is the third-largest player, with an over 21 per cent share, behind only Ola and Bajaj. Similarly, in Odisha, it is only behind TVS and Bajaj.