IndiGo cuts int'l capacity for May by 17%, among worst hit globally

West Asia tensions hit aviation hard, with IndiGo leading capacity cuts among non-Gulf carriers as uncertainty disrupts India-Gulf travel demand

IndiGo is reducing its international capacity by 17 per cent for May compared to its February baseline due to continued air traffic disruptions stemming from heightened tensions in the West Asia region. Among non-Gulf carriers, IndiGo is the most affected, according to data and analysis by global aviation consultancy OAG.  

However, the airline, according to OAG,  expects a modest recovery in capacity for June (up 1.1 per cent) and July (up 1.8 per cent) over February levels, assuming there is rationalisation in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, which, however, appears unlikely  after the Indian government inreased the jet fuel rate for international routes by 5 per cent.    

Gulf-based airlines have been hit hardest, with Air Arabia slashing capacity by 34.3 per cent in May compared to February. Qatar Airways, Flydubai, Etihad Airways, and Saudi Arabian Airlines follow closely behind. IndiGo ranks as the sixth most impacted airline. 

Emirates, meanwhile, has seen a smaller capacity cut than IndiGo. Other non-Gulf airlines within the top 10 most impacted include Thai Airways (-9.3 per cent), Pegasus Airlines (-13.7 per cent), and AirAsia (-8.6 per cent). 

Regionally, South Asia, led by India, is the third most affected region globally due to the Iran-US conflict, with international seat capacity in May down 9.3 per cent from the February baseline. Despite this, South Asia is expected to see no growth in scheduled capacity for June, as the ongoing ceasefire between the US and Iran remains unstable and travel confidence to West Asia remains low. 

The sharpest reductions in capacity are seen in West Asia, where capacity has fallen by more than a third (-37 per cent) in May compared to February, followed by Eastern Europe with an 18.3 per cent drop. 

Among the 17 regions identified by OAG, Central Asia is the only one to report growth, with capacity up 9.7 per cent in May over February. In contrast, the other 16 regions are all experiencing declines. Western Europe has fared relatively better, with a relatively modest 3.7 per cent drop in capacity, while Southeast Asia has seen a significant reduction of 8.3 per cent in May.