India's quick commerce market seen tripling to ₹2 trillion by FY28

India's quick commerce market is projected to grow rapidly, reaching Rs 2 lakh crore by FY28, driven by rising adoption in Tier II and III cities, better delivery networks, and demand for instant fulf

India’s quick commerce market is on a rapid growth trajectory, with the gross order value (GMV) projected to rise from ₹64,000 crore in FY25 to nearly ₹2 trillion by FY28, according to CareEdge Advisory. The sector expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 142 per cent between FY22 and FY25, driven by shifting consumer habits, hyperlocal infrastructure, and a low base.

 

Fueling this surge is rising digital adoption and consumer spending. As of early 2025, India had 806 million internet users – a 6.5 per cent increase from the previous year – supported by over 1.12 billion mobile connections. Smartphone use continues to expand, including in rural areas, aided by low data costs and government programs.

 

“India’s Q-commerce market is set to grow threefold by FY28, with GMV expected to reach nearly ₹2 trillion and platform fee revenues surpassing ₹34,000 crore,” said Tanvi Shah, senior director and head of CareEdge Advisory and Research. “While growth remains strong, the focus is shifting from rapid expansion to reviving profitability and operational efficiency,” Shah added.

 

 

The quick commerce sector is expected to sustain strong double-digit growth in the coming years, according to CareEdge Advisory, driven by rising adoption in Tier II and III cities, improved delivery infrastructure, and growing consumer demand for instant fulfillment. The sector’s rapid expansion is supported by a low base, deeper regional penetration, and India’s ongoing digital transformation.

 

“Going forward, deeper penetration in Tier II and III cities, and tech-led innovations, will likely define the next phase of India’s Q-commerce landscape,” Shah said.

 

Revenue from fees in the country’s quick commerce sector has outpaced GMV growth, rising from ₹450 crore in FY22 to an estimated ₹10,500 crore in FY25, according to CareEdge. It is projected to reach ₹34,500 crore by FY28, growing at a 26–27 per cent CAGR. The sharp rise is driven by higher platform fees and increased monetisation by leading players, alongside a broader uptick in order volume.

 

“The Q-commerce industry is still just around 1 per cent of India’s massive grocery market, but that’s exactly what makes it exciting,” said Amir Shaikh, assistant director at CareEdge Advisory and Research. “As more consumers embrace the speed and convenience it offers, Q-commerce is set to grow rapidly, even if the broader grocery market growth remains flat.”

 

This digital backbone has enabled the rapid adoption of e-commerce and Q-commerce platforms. India had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024, making it the second-largest e-retail user base globally. The e-commerce market grew 23.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in 2024 and is expected to maintain a CAGR of 21.5 per cent through 2030.

 

Additionally, with an increase in disposable income, there has been a gradual change in consumer spending behaviour. Per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), a measure of consumer spending, has showcased significant growth from FY15 to FY25 at a CAGR of 9.68 per cent. Rising disposable income and higher spending capacity are likely to fuel the growth of Q-commerce.

 

Dark stores – small-format warehouses – remain the backbone of the country’s quick commerce boom, enabling rapid delivery. Their count rose from 1,800 to 3,072 in FY25, a 70.7 per cent jump. Average revenue per store also grew 25 per cent, signalling robust demand and user adoption.

 

The fee rate across the Q-commerce sector has shown a sharp upward trend between FY22 and FY25. This was driven by improved monetisation strategies. For instance, leading players reported take rate increases from around 7–9 per cent in FY22 to 14–18 per cent by FY25, effectively doubling in three years.