Hindalco soars 43% from Apr low, hits new high. What's driving metal stock?

Hindalco stock rose 2% on Friday. Looking ahead, the management expects the company's integrated business model, strategic investments and cost discipline to help deliver sustained growth.

Hindalco share price today

 

Shares of Hindalco Industries hit a new high of ₹782, gaining 2 per cent on the BSE in Friday’s intra-day trade on improved business outlook. The stock price of the Aditya Birla Group Company surpassed its previous high of ₹772 touched on October 3, 2024.

 

The stock was quoting higher for the fourth straight trading day, surging 5 per cent during the period. Since September 2025, it has rallied 11 per cent, as compared to 1.4 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. However, the BSE Metal index has soared 12 per cent during the same period. Hindalco has bounced back by 43 per cent from its 52-week low of ₹546.25 touched on April 7, 2025.

 

What's driving Hindalco's stock price?

 

After the record profitability of FY25, Hindalco sustained its growth momentum with a strong first quarter performance, driven by operational efficiencies, cost control, and an enhanced product mix.

 

For the April to June 2025 quarter (Q1FY26), the company’s consolidated EBITDA stood at ₹8,673 crore, up 9 per cent from the same quarter last year, and net profit increased to ₹4,004 crore, up 30 per cent over the prior year quarter.

 

The robust results were driven by a strong performance by the India business, and a resilient performance by Novelis. Despite headwinds, Novelis reported a 1 per cent increase in shipments driven by beverage can shipments which registered a solid 8 per cent growth over the prior year quarter.

 

The management said the company made significant progress in its downstream growth projects: the 170 KT Aditya flat rolled products (FRP) project, Aluminium AC fins, and the Copper IGT facility are under commissioning. Looking ahead, the company’s integrated business model, strategic investments and cost discipline, position Hindalco well to deliver sustained growth, the management said. 

 

Outlook – Hindalco

 

Overall, while near-term challenges persist in some geographies and segments, the medium- to long-term outlook for global FRP demand remains positive, underpinned by secular trends in sustainability, lightweighting and innovation across industries. The India FRP demand in financial year 2026 is supposed to grow by around 6 per cent to 7 per cent on a year-on-year basis, led by a strong demand from the construction, packaging and consumer durables sector.

 

Aluminium prices recovered to ~$2.6k/tn+ in Q2FY26 from ~$2.4k/tn in Q1FY26, driven by a combination of constrained global supply and stable demand outlook. Global aluminium supply is expected to trail demand driven by cooling off in production growth given a) China approaching the 45mtpa capacity cap, b) shortage and disruptions in the supply of essential raw materials like bauxite, especially from the world's largest producer Guinea (revoked 51 mining licences in May’25), and c) subdued LME inventory levels (spot inventory levels at ~514kt, down ~20 per cent from end2024). 

 

According to analysts at JM Financial Institutional Securities, the long-term outlook for Hindalco remains buoyant given resilient performance by India aluminium operations, high run-rates in the copper business, enhanced coal security post acquisition of Meenakshi, Meenakshi West, Bandha, and Chakla coal mines, and growth capex to augment capacity in the downstream business. Hindalco, given ~70 per cent plus steady/strong EBITDA being non-LME linked, remains the brokerage firm preferred play in the metal space.

 

Analysts at PL Capital believe Novelis’ 9MFY26 to be impacted due to the tariffs and weak macro, however as management is taking mitigation initiatives along with higher MJP and stable scrap prices, EBITDA should improve gradually.

 

Novelis expects a $60 million negative tariff impact per quarter (without mitigation) due to doubling of duties under Sec232 by the US President. Mitigation efforts undertaken are tariff pass-throughs, strategies to open up more US mfg/scrap sourcing, and cost takeout actions (4100 million in FY26). Q2 performance should be better than Q1. Most mitigation benefits will be visible in Q3 (seasonally weak) and fully in Q4. Higher premiums and stable scrap pricing should aid in the next few quarters along with mitigation benefits, the brokerage firm said in Q1 the result update. However, currently, Hindalco trades above the brokerage's expected target price of ₹762.