Sensex in July: 23-year history suggests index can deliver a solid return
July has also been traditionally good for foreign inflows, which aided market performance. According to data compiled from the NSDL, FPIs have been net buyers of Indian stocks in 9 out of 12 years.
Deepak KorgaonkarPuneet Wadhwa Mumbai | New Delhi After a modest gain of 3 per cent in June 2026 that saw the Sensex scale a high of 77,803 levels, July can be another month of healthy returns for the index if one goes by history. The index, however, ended June 1.7 per cent lower from its June month’s high at 76,479 levels.
Data compiled from the BSE suggests that in 18 out of the last 23 years, the Sensex has delivered positive returns in July — averaging 4.5 per cent each year. Meanwhile, in the past 12 years, only in two instances, July 2019 and July 2025, where the
BSE Sensex has delivered negative returns of 4.9 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively.
Out of 18 instances, when the Sensex reported positive return, in 9 instances it has given returns over 5 per cent to the investors. Sensex's highest return in of July was in the calendar year 2022 (CY22), when it rallied 8.6 per cent. In July 2009, the Sensex surged 8.1 per cent, followed by 7.8 per cent in July 2004 and 7.7 per cent in July 2020, data shows.
One key reason for the positive returns in July, analysts said, is the onset of
April - June (Q1) corporate result season. Investors, they said, look at making investments in stocks of companies that post a good set of results, accompanied by a healthy guidance.
That apart, progress of monsoon and its impact on inflation and rates, too, has an influence on how markets play out July onwards.
Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities expects the positive momentum in the markets to continue. "While the West Asia peace is still fragile, I believe the worst is over. The only concern is the monsoon back home, which I feel should gain pace in the weeks ahead. FIIs will return to Indian equities amid falling oil and a stable rupee," he said.
Vakil expects the Nifty to hit 25,000 levels in July, up nearly 5 per cent from the current levels of 23,866 provided there are no major negative events globally and back home.
"The index faces resistance at 24,200 levels. If that level is crossed, I expect the Nifty to rally at least 1,000 points from there in July itself," he said.
July has also been traditionally good for foreign inflows, which aided market performance. According to data compiled from the NSDL, FPIs have been net buyers of Indian stocks in 9 out of 12 years. Meanwhile, domestic mutual funds (MFs) were net buyers for 10 years during July, shows data.
Traders, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, at Kotak Securities are waiting for a breakout on the either side depending on news flow.
On the higher side, 77,000 level on the Sensex would act as a crucial resistance. “A successful breakout above this could push the market up to 77,500-77,700 levels. On the flip side, if the Sensex falls below the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), or 76300, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this, the index could retest 75,800 – 75,500 levels,” he said.
 "Sensex in July: 23-year history suggests index can deliver a solid return")
